Assuming Biden wins, which D-trending areas do the GOP recover in?

[R.P. McM]

The MidWest seems like a good bet for the GOP on the state level in 2022. Minnesota is basically Texas for the GOP, where they have a good shot in the future.

With the obvious difference being that the growing parts of Minnesota are trending Democratic, the shrinking parts trending Republican. The GOP certainly has a chance of running competitive races in MN in the near-term (many of which, the state party will surely blow), but unless political trends in MSP reverse, the writing is on the wall.

[R.P. McM]

The MidWest seems like a good bet for the GOP on the state level in 2022. Minnesota is basically Texas for the GOP, where they have a good shot in the future.

With the obvious difference being that the growing parts of Minnesota are trending Democratic, the shrinking parts trending Republican. The GOP certainly has a chance of running competitive races in MN in the near-term (many of which, the state party will surely blow), but unless political trends in MSP reverse, the writing is on the wall.

Not really, Democrats still have a lot of room to fall in places like the Iron Range, and if those turn as red as some of the rurals have, down the road, then it will take a growth in MSP to overcome that.

Congrats — you've essentially restated exactly what I said. Over the short-term, it's essentially a wash. Over the long-term, MSP already represents well over half of MN's population and is growing much faster than the rest of the state.