🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[urutzizu]

CSU projected winning 44/46 direct mandates in Bavaria. Considerably better than expected, and is not just going to screw up the seat distribution by 3 Seats but also blow up the Bundestag into the high 700s. SPD, FDP and Greens have announced that they are going to cull the direct mandates, if necessary without the CDU/CSU, to 250 from the next election but still completely idiotic situation. Especially from the State and Party that likes to accuse the rest of Germany of wasteful spending and excessive bureaucracy.  

[urutzizu]

Before we even get to Berlin, Linke already doing very well in Leipzig II, and over performing the list vote by 8% with 71/301 counted. I can't see how they fail to get the 3 mandates, even if under 5%.

https://wahlergebnis.leipzig.de/4/bt2021/14713000/praesentation/ergebnis.html?wahl_id=3&stimmentyp=0&id=ebene_-5_id_85

[urutzizu]

Who are the 120K moving from Linke to FDP? absonderlich
all I can think of are students in Konstanz and Bremen who were edgy in 2017 and dramatically moved to the center once they got a white-collar job in NRW

I mean having talked to people in my social circles about the election, I am now pretty sure about 50% of young people in Germany don't really vote on any Ideological basis at all, and even where they do (those who vote green because they care about climate change), it is mostly rather shallow. We shouldn't read to much into the decisions of people, and Lindner is just simply a quite popular and subjectively likable Individual just as Wagenknecht was in 2017.

[urutzizu]

I’m not sure if anyone had this on their bingo card of big names potentially missing out on a seat in the Bundestag.

Almost happened in the 2017 NRW election (in the end Armin won Aachen II by 1pct), the contingency is simply that one member is asked to resign (in exchange for some wink wink well paid position in the party/stiftung or in CDU-close industry), and then the first person on the list gets in. Question is of course if CDU even wants Laschet as Fraction Leader after this.

[urutzizu]

In what universe are the CDU supporters on BBC News living in? "Disappointed, we thought we would be above 30%” lmao

Anyways there might be one more Hochrechnung from ARD/ZDF but going by how it was previously, that should be it. From 1AM nothing and then you have to wait for the full count which was a 5AM last time. The numbers can from the last Hochrechnung to the Full Count still shift by a few tenths of a percent. Definitely for whether the Linke breaks 5% (not relevant for the seats as they will get 3 districts, but still a huge psychological difference).

[urutzizu]

ICYMI ZDF Hochrechnung 01:09

SPD:     25.8%
Union:   24.1%
Greens: 14.6%
FDP:      11.5%
AfD:      10.4%
Linke:    4.9%

Meaning ZDF and ARD (23:36) are Identical (give or take 0.1 from the AfD).

[urutzizu]

Final Result:



Seats: SPD 206, CDU 151, Grüne 118, FDP 92, AfD 83, CSU 45, Linke 39, SSW 1
Total: 735, Majority: 368

Traffic Light: 416
Jamaica: 406
R2G: 363, short by 5

Constituency Map:

[urutzizu]

Thanks to mq86mq for the calculation, according to the (in a traffic-light coalition now almost certain to be passed) Electoral reform bill to reduce to the Districts to 250, the Bundestag would have 662 Seats (73 less): CSU 38, SPD 186, CDU 137, Grüne 107, FDP 83, AfD 75, Linke 35 (provided see below), SSW 1.

Because someone asked earlier about the Linke under that reduction: Linke on margin between three and two, the districts in Leipzig would likely remain the same (due to healthy population growth there), but Berlin would be more difficult. Gesine Lötzsch's seat in Lichtenberg would have to be expanded, likely to include Friedrichshain.

[urutzizu]

Second vote by Gemeinde. For some reason the news websites don't show an entire national map, but some show some states and others show other states. So I tried merging them, that's why the colouring is off. White is forests and stuff.

Frankfurter Rundschau has an nice interactive map for BY, BW, SL, HE, NRW, NS, SA, BR, HA, SH:
https://www.fr.de/politik/bundestagswahl-2021-als-interaktive-karte-ergebnisse-aus-allen-11-000-gemeinden-zr-90980562.html

(Scroll down, click on "Gemeinden")

Tagesschau does it for the rest:
https://www.tagesschau.de/wahl/archiv/2021-09-26-BT-DE/index.shtml

[urutzizu]

https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/ampel-koalition-gruene-beharren-nicht-mehr-auf-finanzministerium-17628505.html

Important Leak has gotten out. According to FAZ, which is reputable. All still pending but Green negotiators have narrowed down to six ministries they want: External Affairs, agriculture, transportation, environment (surprise, surprise), Family Affairs and the new transformation ministry.

Ergo FDP gets Finance. According to the Article Greens are concerned that if FDP does not get Finance they would be humiliated before their own supporters, which would create pressure for them to leave/disturb the coalition when problems begin to occur.

[urutzizu]

Its happening: Today 15:00 (CET) SPD-FDP Greens there is a Press Conference to present the Coalition Agreement. Apparently we will also learn the partisan make-up of the portfolios, but not the Individuals themselves (to be revealed from tomorrow). As good as certain is Lindner gets Finance, Habeck some sort of new economy-climate ministry, and Baerbock External Affairs. A few key areas are unclear such as Health, which is of course very important right now and no one really seems to want (except Lauterbach who is never going to get it)

I am pretty amazed all-in all how smooth these negotiations have gone, despite the significant differences between the parties. There is a very strong, clear, commitment here by all three parties not just to form a stable government but also to create some new majority that lasts longer than just 4 years, and all have undertaken really sincere and major efforts to bridge all differences. All efforts to divide the coalition, especially on the fighting the pandemic, where the coalition was most vulnerable due to the fundamental instincts of the parties being opposite, ultimately failed because course was agreed with significant respect to all parties and everyone stuck to the framework and pushed it through, even against severe backlash (see the Infection control law). It is a huge contrast previous negotiations and the current government.

[urutzizu]

So Scholz now wants to make vaccination mandatory, just like in Austria. His first broken promise: in September, right before the election, he said he opposed it. Truly wonder whether the FDP will accept this.

It won't matter. Scholz wants to go ahead the way exactly what Marco Buschmann said he supports: Bundestag to decide without fraction discipline or coalition discipline. Which should pass easily with substantial CDU/CSU and even Linke support, and allows the FDP to save face without harming the coalition. Although I personally think it is likely they will water it down a bit to something like all professions with customer contact/medical care/education etc. because mandatory vaccinations for all could be legally difficult to implement.

[urutzizu]

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/corona-christian-lindner-will-wohl-fuer-impfpflicht-stimmen-a-e7f1311a-8a8b-4a0d-b0f3-58669e08f560

Lindner says he is leaning towards mandatory vaccination, and he will most likely vote for it. On the point of the FDP being dominant in the negotiations on economic issues, its is often neglected just how many previously unimaginable ideological sacrifices the FDP has been willing to make in terms of pandemic fighting. For all three parties this is a permanent political realignment, bigger than any idea or concept, bigger than the interests or privileges of any one individual or group. Comparable to 1969.

[urutzizu]

He has almost become a cult-like figure, lmao.

that doesn't sound like a good thing

Sure. That's why appointing him to the most thankless ministry in Government (perhaps tied with defense, but probably even more) is amazing. Gets to decide none of the pandemic restrictions (almost entirely a state competency) but has to solve a growing mammoth of problems in terms of social care, health care funding and personnel which are practically impossible for anyone because they are caused by demographic problems that can only be addressed very long-term and even then completely outside the remit of the ministry (Immigration, Finance etc.).

And I mean hey, maybe he can actually put his medical background to good use and manages to address these issues that his lawyer and PolSci majors etc. predecessors failed at, then he deserves it all and the whole country is in a better state.