TX - University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas Morning News: Trump +2% (user search)
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  TX - University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas Morning News: Trump +2% (search mode)
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Author Topic: TX - University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas Morning News: Trump +2%  (Read 3637 times)
Fusternino
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Posts: 207
« on: September 06, 2020, 12:18:15 PM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on September 06, 2020, 11:12:18 AM
Quote from: Devils30 on September 06, 2020, 10:21:27 AM
Quote from: BaldEagle1991 on September 06, 2020, 07:08:46 AM
The media is totally sleeping on the idea that TX could go either way.

TX could be the WI of this cycle.

TX could go Biden but it won't be the tipping point. Any TX win includes AZ, WI, MI, PA, FL, GA, NC most likely. WI was the tipping point of 16.

While it's not the most likely scenario, Clinton did about 3% better than her polling in Texas and Beto did about 4% better.  Clinton also narrowly beat her polling in Arizona and Nevada.  In 2016, Trump did about 3% better than his polling in PA, about 4% better in MI and about 7%(!) better in WI, and while he still won in the end, Evers underperformed by about 4%. 

If these polling errors are baked in, this becomes a plausible outcome for a narrow Biden win (say 3% in the PV):



*Florida polls were basically accurate and had Trump leading in 2016, but the big errors underestimating DeSantis and Scott in 2018 give me pause there.






Why does this keep getting repeated?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/texas/

Trump beat his polling by ~1% in TX.
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Fusternino
Rookie
**
Posts: 207
« Reply #1 on: September 06, 2020, 12:37:27 PM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on September 06, 2020, 12:29:29 PM
Quote from: Fusternino on September 06, 2020, 12:18:15 PM
Quote from: Skill and Chance on September 06, 2020, 11:12:18 AM
Quote from: Devils30 on September 06, 2020, 10:21:27 AM
Quote from: BaldEagle1991 on September 06, 2020, 07:08:46 AM
The media is totally sleeping on the idea that TX could go either way.

TX could be the WI of this cycle.

TX could go Biden but it won't be the tipping point. Any TX win includes AZ, WI, MI, PA, FL, GA, NC most likely. WI was the tipping point of 16.

While it's not the most likely scenario, Clinton did about 3% better than her polling in Texas and Beto did about 4% better.  Clinton also narrowly beat her polling in Arizona and Nevada.  In 2016, Trump did about 3% better than his polling in PA, about 4% better in MI and about 7%(!) better in WI, and while he still won in the end, Evers underperformed by about 4%. 

If these polling errors are baked in, this becomes a plausible outcome for a narrow Biden win (say 3% in the PV):



*Florida polls were basically accurate and had Trump leading in 2016, but the big errors underestimating DeSantis and Scott in 2018 give me pause there.






Why does this keep getting repeated?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/texas/

Trump beat his polling by ~1% in TX.

I was using RCP

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/tx/texas_trump_vs_clinton-5694.html

Trump underperformed by about 3%.

Isn't there a consensus that the 538 aggregate is superior?
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