OH-SEN 2024: Brown (D) vs Moreno (R)

[GALeftist]

Don't forget that despite Ryan's 2022 overperformance he had an obvious problem in a lot of urban areas. I don't think that this will be the case for Brown; he has a very strong relationship with the Ohio black community, from what I understand. That is to say, there is obviously room for Brown to grow on Ryan's performance. The real issue for Brown is that it seems like the GOP might nominate someone who isn't a total weirdo (i.e. LaRose); we'll see.

Also I feel like people are being excessively harsh on Brown's 2012 performance. 3 points above Obama 2012 in the Midwest is nothing to sneeze at, especially since Mandel wasn't such a joke back then. Casey Jr. did 4 points better than Obama and Baldwin ran behind him by a little bit, I think it would be silly to conclude that they are therefore mediocre candidates.

[GALeftist]

I think the Trump endorsement is going to be a real hurdle for LaRose. He's been playing footsie with DeSantis, so I think it's pretty unlikely that he gets the endorsement? And if the race ends up being MAGA (Davidson or Moreno) vs. LaRose vs. Dolan, I'd take MAGA any day of the week. I think LaRose's best bet is hoping Trump either stays out altogether or Davidson and Moreno split the MAGA vote.

[GALeftist]

I'm pretty shocked by this. Not only would have had CFG's backing, but being the only candidate not from Northeast Ohio would have given him a real leg up in the primary.

I’m actually not that surprised. I feel like if Davidson had wanted to run for Senate, he would’ve done it in 2022 when there was an open seat.

It looks like this primary is going to come down to Dolan, Moreno, and (likely) LaRose. If LaRose enters, I think it’s advantage Dolan, as LaRose and Moreno would split the “MAGA” vote. If it’s a two way race between Dolan and Moreno, I think Moreno is favored.

Doubt it. More likely to end up as a proxy DeSantis/Trump battle, with LaRose as DeSantis's champion and Moreno as Trump's. As such, I think Moreno is a slight favorite as of now

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/henryrodgersdc/status/1679221427013025792

[GALeftist]

Pretty savvy move, and probably his best option in this scenario. I doubt Trump endorses against someone who endorsed him – has he ever done so before? Maybe Roy Moore/Luther Strange?

[GALeftist]

Pretty savvy move, and probably his best option in this scenario. I doubt Trump endorses against someone who endorsed him – has he ever done so before? Maybe Roy Moore/Luther Strange?

Problem for LaRose is that Moreno also endorsed Trump and Trump likes Moreno more.

Yeah, to be clear I don't think LaRose is getting the Trump endorsement. However, I do think that this is probably the most effective way to keep Trump from endorsing anyone at all. We'll see if it works.

[GALeftist]

It’s over

[GALeftist]

To be honest, the quotes from Moreno's AFF make it sound like the most vanilla profile you're ever going to find on that sort of site.

Closeted gay conservative is (at least superficially) sexually repressing in other ways to compensate? Wow, I didn't know that. You're telling me for the first time