GALeftist
sansymcsansface
YaBB God
Posts: 3,741
Political Matrix
E: -7.29, S: -9.48
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« on: August 25, 2022, 10:28:36 AM » |
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A few things are true here:
1. This is an outlier. Excluding Traf this is Oz's best poll by *6 points* since July.
2. This is probably closer to the eventual outcome than most other polls. I do not expect Fetterman to ultimately win by over 10 points even though I think he is probably a slight favorite. Hope I'm just being overly pessimistic or wedded to the fundamentals or whatever, but I just don't see it.
3. If this poll was released in I think literally any state other than Pennsylvania people would rightly see it as a very good poll for Democrats. In this sample, Biden is underwater by 18 points, and Trump leads Biden by 5 points in a hypothetical 2024 matchup, 47 to 42. Rs also lead the GCB, 47 to 46. Fetterman leads by 5 despite this. Oz also needs to win over 80% of the poll's 5 points of undecideds to win, but 34% of those undecideds say the New Jersey thing makes them less likely to vote for Oz (lol). Not trying to engage in any poll unskewing, of course, but when the best poll for a candidate is their losing by "only" 5 points and the sample errs on the side of R friendly, if anything, that's not a great sign.
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