PA SEN EMERSON POLL FETTERMAN LEADS

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/pennsylvania-2022-fetterman-holds-four-point-lead-over-oz-for-us-senate-shapiro-leads-mastriano-by-three/


FETTERMAN D 48
Dr.Oz 44 R-INC ST
Someone else 3
Undecided 5

[wbrocks67]

Favorabilities:
Fetterman: 48/46 (+2)
Oz: 41/56 (-15)

GCB: R+1, 47-46

Impact of Fetterman’s stroke on decision?
68% no difference
22% less likely to vote for Fetterman
9% more likely to vote for Fetterman

Oz’s longtime NJ residence
51% less likely to support Oz
40% no difference
9% more likely to vote for Oz

[wbrocks67]

Honestly the toplines on these are very realistic, but the only parts that give me pause that leads to those are the favorabilities... Fetterman has never been that low in any poll we've seen and Oz has certainly not been that high (F&M today has him at -30, similar to many other polls we've seen), so IMO those are like bottom line low and high water marks for both of them

EDIT: Wait I'm already seeing where this gone wrong....crosstabs are funky yes, but this has Oz outright winning Latinos in PA.... in a state where Biden won them by 30-40% in 2020.

Either way, throw it in the average, and again, despite some weird things in here, Fetterman +4 in the end is a very plausible result

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

even with polling error it's clear that Fetterman putting a spotlight on Oz's carpetbagging is definitely helping out there.

[SaneDemocrat]

Good poll for Republicans

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

But electionsguy told me candidate quality doesn't matter!!!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Good poll for Republicans

In what way?

[SaneDemocrat]

Fetterman only up 4 with time to catch up.And GOP voters disliking OZ.Awful.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Fetterman only up 4 with time to catch up.And GOP voters disliking OZ.Awful.

D's raised taxes in the Inflation reduction Act of course they're gonna be in trouble in some states but you must count the Early vote that comes in I said before if you see an R jump ahead in a blue state or tie they did the same thing in 2020 when Biden was way ahead in Summer polling and Trump caught Biden but the VBm saved him in blue states and we haven't seen Harris that much

[Xing]

This is a more realistic result than Fetterman winning by double digits, but those favorability ratings for Oz are brutal.

[they don't love you like i love you]

EDIT: Wait I'm already seeing where this gone wrong....crosstabs are funky yes, but this has Oz outright winning Latinos in PA.... in a state where Biden won them by 30-40% in 2020.

The total sample size of Latinos is 65. Posters here should know better than to trust crosstabs with their typical sample size.

[wbrocks67]

EDIT: Wait I'm already seeing where this gone wrong....crosstabs are funky yes, but this has Oz outright winning Latinos in PA.... in a state where Biden won them by 30-40% in 2020.

The total sample size of Latinos is 65. Posters here should know better than to trust crosstabs with their typical sample size.

Exactly why I said crosstabs are funky. Figured it had to be low to get that result

[GALeftist]

A few things are true here:

1. This is an outlier. Excluding Traf this is Oz's best poll by *6 points* since July.

2. This is probably closer to the eventual outcome than most other polls. I do not expect Fetterman to ultimately win by over 10 points even though I think he is probably a slight favorite. Hope I'm just being overly pessimistic or wedded to the fundamentals or whatever, but I just don't see it.

3. If this poll was released in I think literally any state other than Pennsylvania people would rightly see it as a very good poll for Democrats. In this sample, Biden is underwater by 18 points, and Trump leads Biden by 5 points in a hypothetical 2024 matchup, 47 to 42. Rs also lead the GCB, 47 to 46. Fetterman leads by 5 despite this. Oz also needs to win over 80% of the poll's 5 points of undecideds to win, but 34% of those undecideds say the New Jersey thing makes them less likely to vote for Oz (lol). Not trying to engage in any poll unskewing, of course, but when the best poll for a candidate is their losing by "only" 5 points and the sample errs on the side of R friendly, if anything, that's not a great sign.

[Brittain33]

LOL at 9% more likely to vote for Oz because he’s from NJ.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This same poll has Trump ahead 47/42 in PA obviously that's wrong because Bob Casey Jr is on the Ballot but this race was gonna narrow anyways

That's why I didn't post it in the 24 ELECTION because we're gonna win PA no matter what in 24 with Bob Casey Jr it's a Emerson Poll

[Yoda]

Favorabilities:
Fetterman: 48/46 (+2)
Oz: 41/56 (-15)

GCB: R+1, 47-46

Impact of Fetterman’s stroke on decision?
68% no difference
22% less likely to vote for Fetterman
9% more likely to vote for Fetterman

Oz’s longtime NJ residence
51% less likely to support Oz
40% no difference
9% more likely to vote for Oz

OUCH

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is simultaneously a bad poll for Oz and a good poll for him.
It's bad because in a Trump+5 sample he's behind by almost 5 (not even counting crosstabs, that show highly troubling results for Oz here).
It's good because he's at least not losing by...double digits.
But Oz needs to turn this around and it's for good reason that he's expected to lose by R insiders. Oh well! Should have pulled out when you still could.

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Pennsylvania Senator by Emerson College on 2022-08-23

Summary: D: 48%, R: 44%, I: 3%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details