How the Kansas result changes the GOV landscape...

[GALeftist]

I could be persuaded to move MI-GOV to Lean D after this, and I think Democrats have a better shot in competitive house races in MI and CA than they would have otherwise. Might move MT-01 down to likely as well. Beyond that, I'm uncomfortable predicting anything. It is obvious to me that A. these referenda are going to raise the salience of abortion and B. the Democratic position on abortion is overwhelmingly popular except in conservative Southern states and Mormon country, but I do think it's possible that we just don't see that salience when it's not directly on the ballot.

However, I don't really think that this is analogous to stuff like the minimum wage. The Democrats' position is popular there, of course, but 1. it's not really as high salience as abortion; there isn't a sizable contingent of voters who are gonna show up just for the minimum wage, as it seems obvious there is for abortion, and 2. I think abortion is one of those issues where voters truly do believe Democrats are going to put their money where their mouth is as opposed to stuff like the minimum wage where I think there's more of a perception that the Democrats use it to get votes but it's not a huge priority once they're in office.

[GALeftist]

This helps Whitmer and Evers meaningfully given the total bans hanging in the balance there.  Probably helps Shapiro in PA, too, even though a ban isn't really in the cards there.  IDK if it helps or hurts Kelly.  The Kansas moderates could either stay angry at R's or alternatively feel safer voting straight ticket R in the fall knowing that state level abortion rights are now safe. 

Bottom line, it looks like there are more soft pro-choice Trump voters than we thought.

It's honestly not all that surprising to me. Part of the genius of Trump was separating social conservatism from religion. This is kind of hard to explain, but think about people like Rick Santorum. In many ways, they set the tone for the modern GOP in terms of focus on the culture war, but they were and are pretty astoundingly unpopular; most Americans think it's weird to be that religious, even if they could be persuaded to agree with some of his culture war positions for different reasons like racial resentment. Trump successfully ditched the hyper-religiousness, leaving mostly just the bits that were popular.