How the Kansas result changes the GOV landscape...

[wbrocks67]

IMO, the one thing the Kansas result showed is that this position of incredulous abortion restrictions is not going to work out for GOP governor candidates this fall, even moreso than Senate races.

You have Michels/Kleefisch, Mastriano, Dixon, Lake, etc., with all untenable positions on abortion in swing states that are even more pro-choice than Kansas was.

Not just that, but in Michigan in particular, you will likely have an abortion amendment on the ballot, which given the KS results, is a complete boon for Whitmer at this point (let alone Dixon's comments on no exceptions for rape or incest)

[Alben Barkley]

Whitmer was favored to begin with but yeah, that abortion referendum being on the ballot combined with Dixon’s stances are really gonna help her. I think Lake winning is a boon for Hobbs too. Already knew Shapiro had a good shot against Mastriano but seeing this certainly doesn’t hurt.

[Devils30]

IMO, the one thing the Kansas result showed is that this position of incredulous abortion restrictions is not going to work out for GOP governor candidates this fall, even moreso than Senate races.

You have Michels/Kleefisch, Mastriano, Dixon, Lake, etc., with all untenable positions on abortion in swing states that are even more pro-choice than Kansas was.

Not just that, but in Michigan in particular, you will likely have an abortion amendment on the ballot, which given the KS results, is a complete boon for Whitmer at this point (let alone Dixon's comments on no exceptions for rape or incest)

The Dems very likely will win a MI PA WI AZ Gov quartet.

[Duke of York]

IMO, the one thing the Kansas result showed is that this position of incredulous abortion restrictions is not going to work out for GOP governor candidates this fall, even moreso than Senate races.

You have Michels/Kleefisch, Mastriano, Dixon, Lake, etc., with all untenable positions on abortion in swing states that are even more pro-choice than Kansas was.

Not just that, but in Michigan in particular, you will likely have an abortion amendment on the ballot, which given the KS results, is a complete boon for Whitmer at this point (let alone Dixon's comments on no exceptions for rape or incest)

Its likely a boon for any Democrat in Michigan.

[Ferguson97]

Michigan is Lean D, bordering on Likely D at this point.

Kansas is pure tossup/tilt R. Laura Kelly has a serious shot at winning re-election after this.

[wbrocks67]

IMO, the one thing the Kansas result showed is that this position of incredulous abortion restrictions is not going to work out for GOP governor candidates this fall, even moreso than Senate races.

You have Michels/Kleefisch, Mastriano, Dixon, Lake, etc., with all untenable positions on abortion in swing states that are even more pro-choice than Kansas was.

Not just that, but in Michigan in particular, you will likely have an abortion amendment on the ballot, which given the KS results, is a complete boon for Whitmer at this point (let alone Dixon's comments on no exceptions for rape or incest)

Its likely a boon for any Democrat in Michigan.

Michigan could be a real bright spot for Ds this year. GOP has horrific candidates (Dixon, Gibbs, etc.), while not only the abortion amendment helping turnout, but with all of that, the MI state legislature also has the fairest map it's seen in years.

[wbrocks67]

Michigan is Lean D, bordering on Likely D at this point.

Kansas is pure tossup/tilt R. Laura Kelly has a serious shot at winning re-election after this.

It will be interesting to see how Schmidt messages at this point. He was pro "YES" but it seems he hedged on further talk of what he would do about abortion pre-primary.

[Tekken_Guy]

I think Laura Kelly still loses, Kemp still wins

Shapiro and Whitmer are favored. Only uncertainties are AZ/NV/WI, and AZ might be the easiest for the Dems to keep.

[wbrocks67]

GA is an interesting one. If Abrams can harness this issue, she may improve her chances quite a bit. It doesn't seem like it really has hit people in GA that Kemp has already signed in super restrictive abortion restrictions, so the onus is on her to make sure they know.

[Gass3268]

Whitmer was favored to begin with but yeah, that abortion referendum being on the ballot combined with Dixon’s stances are really gonna help her. I think Lake winning is a boon for Hobbs too. Already knew Shapiro had a good shot against Mastriano but seeing this certainly doesn’t hurt.

Yeah, it feels like it is a very bad idea for Pennsylvania Republicans to push for an anti-abortion referendum in November.

https://twitter.com/4st8/status/1554684333834772480?s=20&t=Er90li-pC4K4D2H9V...

[coloradocowboi]

GA is an interesting one. If Abrams can harness this issue, she may improve her chances quite a bit. It doesn't seem like it really has hit people in GA that Kemp has already signed in super restrictive abortion restrictions, so the onus is on her to make sure they know.

The problem is that standing up to Trump already moved the Overton Window on Kemp. He looks like a moderate and is an extremist, which is actually an incredible position to be in for the POTUS nomination in 2024, if he can sneak past Trump and Desantis

[wbrocks67]

RE: the PA amendment - looks like the earliest it would be on the ballot would be for next years primary.

[wbrocks67]

GA is an interesting one. If Abrams can harness this issue, she may improve her chances quite a bit. It doesn't seem like it really has hit people in GA that Kemp has already signed in super restrictive abortion restrictions, so the onus is on her to make sure they know.

The problem is that standing up to Trump already moved the Overton Window on Kemp. He looks like a moderate and is an extremist, which is actually an incredible position to be in for the POTUS nomination in 2024, if he can sneak past Trump and Desantis

This is true, though recent polling seems to indicate that it's fading a little bit. Abrams needs to really push though to make it fade completely.

[Xing]

Honestly, not much. We’ve seen many times how people vote for the Democratic position in referendums while still voting Republican. We saw quite a bit of this in 2014. The problem for Democrats isn’t their stances on the issues, it’s their image, as well as how ineffective they are at governing.

[Sir Mohamed]

Michigan is Lean D, bordering on Likely D at this point.

Kansas is pure tossup/tilt R. Laura Kelly has a serious shot at winning re-election after this.

Kelly also had a serious shot before this, since her approvals have been in solid positive territory for her entire term.

For sure this reinforces that KS-Gov is indeed a pure tossup.

[wbrocks67]

Honestly, not much. We’ve seen many times how people vote for the Democratic position in referendums while still voting Republican. We saw quite a bit of this in 2014. The problem for Democrats isn’t their stances on the issues, it’s their image, as well as how ineffective they are at governing.

Not really sure you can go after Ds and their "image" in these particular races, since Whitmer, Shapiro, Evers, etc., are not the ones with image problems in these states compared to their R counterparts.

[Spectator]

Predictions

Dems gain Arizona, Maryland, and Massachusetts. Hold Pennsylvania, Nevada, Maine and Michigan.

GOP gains Wisconsin and Kansas. Hold Georgia and Florida.

Abortion has a marginal effect on NV, MI, PA, AZ, and ME since those are all very pro choice states. I do think abortion has saved Democrats from what otherwise would have been catastrophic losses.

Nevada, Arizona, and Wisconsin are the states I’m least sure about.

[wesmoorenerd]

Predictions

Dems gain Arizona, Maryland, and Massachusetts. Hold Pennsylvania, Nevada, Maine and Michigan.

GOP gains Wisconsin and Kansas. Hold Georgia and Florida.

Abortion has a marginal effect on NV, MI, PA, AZ, and ME since those are all very pro choice states I do think abortion has saved Democrats from what otherwise would have been catastrophic losses..

Nevada, Arizona, and Wisconsin are the states I’m least sure about.

This is basically where I'm at, except I think Evers narrowly holds on.

[Spectator]

I wouldn’t be surprised if Kelly won either. I just don’t know if voters in a red state in a Biden midterm are willing to overlook her party even if they don’t seem to mind her.

[Xing]

Honestly, not much. We’ve seen many times how people vote for the Democratic position in referendums while still voting Republican. We saw quite a bit of this in 2014. The problem for Democrats isn’t their stances on the issues, it’s their image, as well as how ineffective they are at governing.

Not really sure you can go after Ds and their "image" in these particular races, since Whitmer, Shapiro, Evers, etc., are not the ones with image problems in these states compared to their R counterparts.

These image problems often affect all or at least a majority of Democrats, though.

[wbrocks67]

The post-Roe landscape may honestly have saved Sisolak and Masto tbh.

[wbrocks67]

Honestly, not much. We’ve seen many times how people vote for the Democratic position in referendums while still voting Republican. We saw quite a bit of this in 2014. The problem for Democrats isn’t their stances on the issues, it’s their image, as well as how ineffective they are at governing.

Not really sure you can go after Ds and their "image" in these particular races, since Whitmer, Shapiro, Evers, etc., are not the ones with image problems in these states compared to their R counterparts.

These image problems often affect all or at least a majority of Democrats, though.

Sometimes. But again, these particular candidates have also crafted their own personal message/brand outside of the national Ds. There's a reason Shapiro, for example, has nearly a +20 favorability in PA. That stuff will matter in these gov races.

[Boobs]

One thing to remember is that the public perception of the GOP on abortion is that it is far more extreme than it is on other issues. GOP candidates talking openly about no exceptions whatsoever, not even for rape, incest, or even for the very young victims of such crimes, does little to dispel such notion. Dobbs putting this issue front and center, and Republican nominees unable to strike an acceptable tone on abortion, is probably going to turn off some persuadable voters.

[Hope For A New Era]

Michigan is Lean D, bordering on Likely D at this point.

Kansas is pure tossup/tilt R. Laura Kelly has a serious shot at winning re-election after this.

Kelly also had a serious shot before this, since her approvals have been in solid positive territory for her entire term.

For sure this reinforces that KS-Gov is indeed a pure tossup.

I've been saying this for a year and a half now. Kelly has literally never been underwater. The only way she loses is by her opponent convincing voters who approve of her to stop approving and vote against her. Very possible of course, especially in a R state, but significantly harder than just mobilizing a disapproving majority.

[GALeftist]

I could be persuaded to move MI-GOV to Lean D after this, and I think Democrats have a better shot in competitive house races in MI and CA than they would have otherwise. Might move MT-01 down to likely as well. Beyond that, I'm uncomfortable predicting anything. It is obvious to me that A. these referenda are going to raise the salience of abortion and B. the Democratic position on abortion is overwhelmingly popular except in conservative Southern states and Mormon country, but I do think it's possible that we just don't see that salience when it's not directly on the ballot.

However, I don't really think that this is analogous to stuff like the minimum wage. The Democrats' position is popular there, of course, but 1. it's not really as high salience as abortion; there isn't a sizable contingent of voters who are gonna show up just for the minimum wage, as it seems obvious there is for abortion, and 2. I think abortion is one of those issues where voters truly do believe Democrats are going to put their money where their mouth is as opposed to stuff like the minimum wage where I think there's more of a perception that the Democrats use it to get votes but it's not a huge priority once they're in office.