Fox News PA, GA: Fetterman +11, Warnock +4

[GALeftist]

Prepping for another historic polling miss.

We'll find out in November, won't we?  You could be right -- but I'd rather be the side ahead in the polls than the one behind.

I'm very likely to be right..not sure I'd feel comfortable being on the side that's support has been consistently exaggerated by significant margins.. pollsters clearly have no desire to change the methodology.

These polls simply don't correlate with presidential approval and even the current tied generic ballot average (538).

Asinine to use polls as evidence against themselves imo. Biden's approval is not exactly stellar in these polls! The polled individuals clearly both disapprove of Biden and favor Fetterman/Shapiro. If you have some reason why this couldn't be true among the general population, that would be a valid point, but this isn't when Ds are approaching 50%.

[GALeftist]

"Muh 2020 polling error" seems like a not very compelling point to me. It's literally one data point! I think a bigger issue is that Biden is at -15 net favorability according to this poll, which seems high for Pennsylvania. 538's aggregate has him at -16 nationally; I'd have to imagine that it would be lower in PA, although maybe it's just an artifact of recent momentum in Biden's favor. Even adjusting for that, though, this is still a darn good poll for Fetterman, mainly because Oz has McConnell-tier approvals in a state 28 points bluer than Kentucky.

[GALeftist]

"Muh 2020 polling error" seems like a not very compelling point to me. It's literally one data point! I think a bigger issue is that Biden is at -15 net favorability according to this poll, which seems high for Pennsylvania. 538's aggregate has him at -16 nationally; I'd have to imagine that it would be lower in PA, although maybe it's just an artifact of recent momentum in Biden's favor. Even adjusting for that, though, this is still a darn good poll for Fetterman, mainly because Oz has McConnell-tier approvals in a state 28 points bluer than Kentucky.

You know full well the polling error goes further back than 2020..

It's a intrinsic issue with the industry which has yet to be rectified or even recognized amongst most polling organizations.

The notable thing about the 2020 polling error isn't really that it was a continuation of a pattern; polls were also quite off in 2016, of course, but again, two cycles doesn't make a law of nature, as is evidenced by the fact that 2018 Pennsylvania polls were pretty good.