PA-SEN (Suffolk/USA Today): Fetterman +9

[GALeftist]

Cards on the table, I don't believe that this will be close to the final result, obviously. I suspect a number of the Republicans who disapproved of Oz (for whatever reason) will ultimately bite the bullet and vote for him. This race is still Tilt R for me. With that being said:

[GALeftist]

As I said I still consider the race Tilt R but there's a real refusal to engage with this poll from a lot of Republicans. It's not really that out there, the only thing it does is confirm that Oz has an unusually low net approval and then imply that that translates into a substantial underperformance. Oz's problems with approval aren't unique to this poll, nor does this poll deviate wildly from the average or anything, only from certain user's priors. I would recommend that y'all get serious about Oz's potential problems as a candidate.