GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[GALeftist]

To go off my previous point, now is when we see which Georgia Republicans think is worse: an unrepentant mass murderer of his children or a mainstream Democrat.

[GALeftist]

Sorry for the double post, but God, this is heartbreaking.

[GALeftist]

I really cannot for the life of me understand why red counties are instituting all these limits on when people can vote as opposed to blue counties. I guess just dogma? It seems blindingly obvious that, assuming your county is run by the same party as a majority of its voters (true for most Georgia counties afaik), it is always in your best interest to allow as much voting as possible.

[GALeftist]

No one should draw any conclusions from this anecdote but I voted early this past weekend while home from college for Thanksgiving and lines were insanely long throughout Fulton both days.

[GALeftist]

Just voted, and if the line was any indication, I’m convinced 80 year old white people are the only thing keeping the GOP in contention. People behind me were blatantly violating the no political talk rule by talking about how Warnock was going to expand the SCOTUS to 13.

Yeah, this was another thing, the polling place I went to clearly had an overwhelmingly liberal clientele; the part of Fulton I was in was up north, probably marginally D by now but obviously sprinting left.

[GALeftist]

One key issue for the persuasion angle is that I think many people held their noses and voted Walker because they wanted an R senate, but now that that's off the table, those people have less of an incentive to do so again unless they're huge nerds who are deeply invested in Ds not having committee majorities or whatever (or partisan hacks, but they were always gonna vote Walker).

[GALeftist]

OK, officially election day, I'm going on the record. Walker could win, especially in such a polarized state, but it's hard to see a convincing path imo. Walker is a bad candidate as November showed. Runoffs probably benefit Democrats at this point. Little to no incentive for Rs who don't like Walker to hold their noses for him with Senate control decided. Black turnout has been strong relative to white turnout. Polls are generally pretty good in Georgia, they were good in November (if anything they overestimated Walker), and they almost uniformly show a Warnock edge. Clear Lean D imo.

[GALeftist]

We're flying a little blind here since we don't have the Guam results to analyze this time.

Or turnout allegedly cratering in Virginia to tell us that all 50 states were going to be disasters for Democrats!

I'll never forgive Wasserman for that.

Yep. Though I've learned to not trust VA turnout reports specifically. Ben Tribbett was doing the same nonsense this year too, being incredibly overdramatic. He did it in 2017 too, saying that it looked terrible for Dems midday and then suddenly amazing in the afternoon.

Turnout reports are basically always complete bunk. You should basically always just wait for actual results.

[GALeftist]

Not quite over but certainly not looking good for Walker if it's true that Fulton hasn't counted absentees yet lol.

[GALeftist]

So far the 2 counties all the way in according to NYT (Washington and Brantley) have swung just *barely* right from the Nov GE. I rlly hate how stale the NYT interface is.

Twitter narrative going to quickly run into reality... looking like a very narrow Warnock win if he can maintain overperformances in the urbans.

Even if you extrapolated that shift statewide Warnock would still narrowly win

[GALeftist]

Two more years for Clarence Thomas to [REALIZE THE ERROR OF HIS WAYS AND RETIRE]