Special Election megathread (5/21: CA-20)

[GALeftist]

Still I never understood why Molinaro was an "A+" recruit. It just seems like he was given that label because he wasn't a complete dumpster wreck (like many GOP candidates have been) and he's fairly young, charismatic, and attractive. That doesn't inherently make him an A+ recruit.

I have been beating this drum for quite a while but Molinaro legit was super overrated. He is certainly better than Generic R – he's carrying Dutchess after all – but Ryan is probably about as good a candidate. People just lazily looked at his carrying the district by 11 in 2018 and concluded that he was an electoral God when obviously Cuomo was largely to blame.

[GALeftist]

Forumlurker where u at dawg I was promised an R+9 red tsunami

[GALeftist]

Dobbs bump deniers be like "must've been the wind"

In all seriousness, I am so darn happy. For the first time this cycle I am thinking the House could be in play.

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/RealPData/status/1562563085595844609

This account should not be trusted on its own. Neither should the campaigns, frankly. Instead, check out Tompkins County; Della Pia got more votes from Tompkins in the special than were cast in the Democratic primary. Does that really seem like something that would happen if you had to specifically request a ballot for the special? (Same story in Chautauqua fwiw; Sempolinski got more votes in the special than Chautauqua cast in the R primary.)

[GALeftist]

Molinaro got an 8% boost on Trump 2020 in Dutchess and Ryan's boost on Biden was less than 3%, suggesting Molinaro had a built in advantage and still lost worse than Trump. I don't know how he wins with Ithaca and Binghamton added to the fall version.

Ulster is 33% college degree, this is not even close to the most educated/biggest Dem swing type of place yet commentators are talking like it is.

To paraphrase some dude on Twitter, if Lincoln, NE and Kingston, NY are college-educated liberal enclaves, the country is full to bursting with college-educated liberal enclaves.

[GALeftist]

Looks like my 4,000 mules arrived just in time

[GALeftist]

In all seriousness, who exactly do we think is doing the rigging here? Dunleavy? Biden? If Biden could rig elections why did he fail to rig VA-GOV and subject me to thousands of Glenn Youngkin stans on Twitter?

[GALeftist]

This is the most low tech thing I've ever seen lmao

[GALeftist]

Absolutely insane. HUGE congrats to Peltola. Let's go!!

[GALeftist]

I look forward to those dumb "red country with blue dots" maps displaying AK-AL to scale and demonstrating that actually hundreds of thousands of square miles of ice are Ridin with Biden, which is a far more useful metric than people.

[GALeftist]

Bummer about Regunberg but I honestly think that the Utah race has broader national implications; having a sane center-right party is, like, existentially important for the nation and that won't happen without moderates winning in red territory.