2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida

[GALeftist]

Anyone else feel like the GOP will pull a last minute gotcha and like completely reconfigure Tampa? This still doesn’t make sense why they’d draw 3 Dem leaning seats unless they’re really cocky they can win all 3. There’s no real VRA or COI reason for this config, infact I’d argue it’s not great from either standpoint as it cracks minorities in Tampa, isnt based on any precedent, and isn’t really an incumbent thing since as the poster above pointed out you can make a Pinellas seat R-Leaning without touching any other R seats

This is the FL GOP, they ain’t stupid and I have a hard time seeing them just throw away 1-2 possible seats like that

One possibility is that it’s just a placeholder config for now; they drew giant rectangles because they weren’t sure what to do with Tampa yet and they plan on going through later and drawing a more favorable config

There seems to be a fundamental difference of opinion between the Florida Senate and the Florida House on what to do with redistricting. It will be interesting to see who wins out.

Actually one of the drafts we've seen from the House doesn't really look that bad. It shores up Gimenez and Salazar about as much as the Senate does and it doesn't axe Murphy's seat or even really make it redder. It does change the configuration in Tampa to be more R favorable and limit Ds to two seats but even then it doesn't axe Crist's seat or anything. Of course, there's also Sabatini's map which axes Murphy's seat, but everyone hates him so I'm hopeful they won't go with his map. (Plus, his map makes the new seat in Tampa a little tenuous as well.)

Unrelated question: how Hispanic are you allowed to make the Hialeah seat without running afoul of the VRA? Trying to draw a fair map of Florida.

[GALeftist]

Probably the state where growth was most R-friendly and they make the new seat a tossup. Wow.

[GALeftist]

Dumb map. I think it's more noteworthy that DeSantis is saying he wants a more aggressive map than that he proposed this one specifically. What I don't really know is what might result from this. Like, if hypothetically the FL Senate was dead set on their map, the legislature probably has the votes to override a veto, right? How much leverage does DeSantis really have?

Anyway I just don't see them nuking FL-05 or doing any of that silliness in South Florida. I think there's a chance that they take the Senate map and nuke FL-07, change the Tampa configuration, and that's really about it.

[GALeftist]

Lol wait I just noticed that this map nukes FL-20. FL-05 might be a gray area but that district is straight up majority black. Unless the Supreme Court just wants to toss out the VRA in its entirety I don't see how this map is worth the time of day.

[GALeftist]

FYI you can just recede FL05 to Broward only to make it 46% black.

No, you can’t. That’s not at all how VRA works. This comes up with Georgia where Republicans think you can get rid of GA-2 by giving Black voters another district in Atlanta. It’s not about the number of districts, it’s about the ability of a specific geographically defined community to elect the candidate of their choice. You need to enable the Black population of northern Florida or southwestern Georgia to have the opportunity for representation in Congress and a VRA district in Fort Lauderdale doesn’t do that any more than a district in Chicago or Prince George’s does.

I  meant to type fl 20th which is currently  majority black. It could be entirely within Broward and become 45% black.

Also please explain how Tallahassee to Jacksonville is geographically defined . Its just as absurd as nc12 and certain Georgia districts in the 90s which were shut down. Any vra lawsuit trying to save the current shape of the 5th is dead. An argument can be made/ an actual fair map would have just a whole Duval district minus the beach portion.  Overall fl 5 isn't an awful deal for Rs.  Instead of having a Biden +10  jax district and Trump +12 fl02 you have 1 safe r and 1 safe d..

Yeah FL-05 isn't really a slam dunk for the Democrats in terms of partisanship because a fair map without it would probably still have a lean/likely D district contained within Duval. (Of course, the DeSantis map has no such district; instead, it splits Jacksonville black voters straight down the middle, which seems like a more compelling VRA violation, to me at least.) I think at least part of the reason it's still around is the Rs in Florida genuinely like it. It makes FL-02 a lot safer, protecting against a 2014 repeat, and it also makes the Jacksonville seat nice and safe for Rutherford or whatever other Jacksonville Republican wants a bite at the apple later on.

[GALeftist]

Honestly the Desantis map seems like a wasteful reason to cross the bay. It invites controversy  with little benefit . A bay cross can help make a secure map for all likely r districts but the map includes a tossup biden seat east of Tampa. At that point why not just make the tossup based in Pinellas at Biden +2 and then draw a Tampa district and just secure the rest of Hillsborough  to keep only 2 biden districts in the region with little complaints ?
Its unlikely Pinellas will trend in any specific direction while the East Tampa seat doesn't have the best of trends recently for the GOP

Obviously the ET idea that a st Pete Tampa district would violate the VRA is stupid  but its still a galvanizing proposal with little benefit .

I'll bet what happened is whoever drew the map drew it in like 10 minutes and didn't bother to check the partisan numbers and just assumed an east Hillsborough seat would be likely R. The whole map is sloppy in similar ways (double bunks incumbents, has Salazar in a Biden district, etc. etc.) and I don't think even the guy who drew it thinks it will become law. The point is to show that the governor (or people in his orbit) wants a better configuration in Tampa, not the particulars of how he wants it achieved.

I'm very skeptical that this map would recieve a VRA overturn for the same reasons that lfrmonj mentioned. The current FL-05 links two disconnected communities across hundreds of miles to secure a majority Black-seat -- almost a dead ringer for the old NC-12. Especially with the new map (seemingly?) having relatively clean borders I struggle to see the Supreme Court or the 11th Circuit overturning the map. In fact, combining the votes of Thomas (voted both in Cromartie and Harris to overturn NC-12) and Alito and Roberts (who voted to uphold NC-12 in Harris, but only the basis of stare decisis), I'm more inclined to think that there is a majority on the Supreme Court to get rid of FL-05 than to keep it.

The bigger issue is FL-20. You definitely need two black districts in metro Miami no matter how you slice it. However, the successor district to FL-20 they drew here is only 43.5% black by VAP, which should usually work but isn't great when it's easy to improve substantially. I don't really even know why they chopped it, since packing black voters is probably a positive for the GOP in Miami, but it's another example of sloppiness. Anyway that's one problem with this map, but despite its seriousness it's relatively easy to fix. Here are the deeper issues:

1. Obviously it violates the Florida constitution. The FLSC is probably hackish enough to ignore this but it's possible it could get hairy
2. Chopping FL-05 is beneficial to Republicans nationally but is bad for Dunn (FL-02) and Rutherford (FL-04) specifically as well as Tallahassee and Jacksonville Republicans more broadly. This is especially relevant since Gwen Graham got elected in a similar FL-02 to the one proposed in 2014
3. For whatever reason they waited until the Florida legislature was like halfway done with the process to do this, they would have had a much better negotiating position if they had done this ages ago

[GALeftist]

Sorry for the double post but what an incredible map lol

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1483202158028034050

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/MaryEllenKlas/status/1483529296652255233

Florida Senate is proceeding with its plan. We'll see what happens in the House I suppose.

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/MaryEllenKlas/status/1483529296652255233
Florida Senate is proceeding with its plan. We'll see what happens in the House I suppose.

DeSantis' plan is an embarrassment only created to satiate a bunch of loudmouth conservatives. It never was going to pass the legislature.

Agreed but it's interesting to me that they didn't even make any changes to Tampa or Orlando in response. I never expected the FL-05 chop or the silliness in South Florida to fly but those seemed like the areas where they would compromise with the governor if they compromised at all.

[GALeftist]

This is a waste of time. No one in the legislature has touched FL-05, there's no appetite to axe it. Why is DeSantis making such a big deal over this rather than actual achievable goals like Orlando or Tampa seats?

[GALeftist]

Would it not be a bit of an own goal for DeSantis to veto the maps? Best case scenario for the GOP in that case is probably that the veto gets overridden, DeSantis sues that the FL-05 is a racial gerrymander, wins, and gets a redder but still pretty blue seat within Duval. I doubt the courts would be hackish enough to draw a partisan gerrymander in Jacksonville themselves, even if they'd let one stand if it came from the legislature. Similarly the legislature's map probably protects South Florida incumbents more than a court drawn map would, which is presumably what would happen if DeSantis vetoes and the legislature can't override.

Bottom line, this seems like a poorly thought out strategy from DeSantis, I have no idea why he's focusing so heavily on FL-05. He should just be asking the legislature for Orlando and Tampa reconfigurations, but he's basically ignored those thus far.

[GALeftist]

Would it not be a bit of an own goal for DeSantis to veto the maps? Best case scenario for the GOP in that case is probably that the veto gets overridden, DeSantis sues that the 5th district is a racial gerrymander, wins, and gets a redder but still pretty blue seat within Duval. I doubt the courts would be hackish enough to draw a partisan gerrymander in Jacksonville themselves, even if they'd let one stand if it came from the legislature. Similarly the legislature's map probably protects South Florida incumbents more than a court drawn map would.

Well at the very least he could stop the dumb NH 2010 tier move in Tampa which doesn't make much sense.

That's true, a court drawn Tampa would probably be better for the GOP than the Senate map, lol. Still, though, the Senate's Tampa configuration definitely isn't illegal and is far enough away from FL-05 that a racial gerrymandering lawsuit wouldn't have to touch it, so as I see it the possibilities are:

1. Racial gerrymandering lawsuit, FL-05 moves from Safe D to Lean D
2. Court drawn map: FL-05 moves from Safe D to Lean D, FL-14 moves from tossup to Lean D, FL-15 moves from tossup to Lean R, Orlando is basically unchanged, FL-26 and FL-27 probably move from Lean R to tossup

Neither is an especially good bargain for the GOP

[GALeftist]

Any chance the FLSC finds that the district is actually explicitly illegal under Florida law?

Anyway I'm starting to think that DeSantis actually is racist or really hates Al Lawson or something. Just pushing for Tampa/Orlando reconfigurations:

1. Would have approximately 0.1% of the legal trouble he is putting the state through with this bizarre fixation
2. Would be at least as effective and probably anywhere from 2x to 6x as effective as an FL-05 crack
3. Wouldn't antagonize the Florida legislature like he has been doing

Why is he doing this?

[GALeftist]

OK, so the court isn't 100% hacks. Hopefully DeSantis butts out now.

[GALeftist]

I wonder if DeSantis is serious with his implicit veto threats. If so, could give Democrats more leverage; they'd probably want a veto override over a court map.

[GALeftist]

Someone needs to enable parental controls on Newman's laptop and block DRA.

[GALeftist]

Anyway, I've come to the conclusion that this is mostly a stunt by DeSantis aimed at donors or something rather than a genuine partisan maneuver. I originally thought he probably just wanted a friendly House if he won in 2024 or wanted to force a fight on VRA districts which he believed would benefit the GOP nationally. However, if this were the case, you'd expect for him to shift his strategy somewhat or at least come to the table after getting some pretty obvious pushback from the legislature and the courts. If anything, though, he's been getting more obstinate and is basically picking a fight with the legislature over this, and this map is no exception.

[GALeftist]

This whole odyssey has been truly bizarre. I don't think anyone at the outset would have anticipated that an R trifecta in an important swing state like Florida would have legitimate and heated disagreements between all three branches of government.

[GALeftist]

I can live with it. That Orlando seat is probably on borrowed time anyway.

[GALeftist]

DeSantis reiterates veto threat:

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1498445040393273345

Confirms what we knew all along, which was that his "concerns" were about the number of Democrats the map would elect and not its compliance with the VRA or anything like that.

[GALeftist]

If DeSantis will just veto any non-gerrymander map (looking likely at this point), why wouldn't the legislature just pass his map?
If they don't pass his map it'll just end up in the courts anyway because they'll have no map at all, so if they're afraid of the map ending up in court why don't they just pass DeSantis' map if it'll end up in court either way?

And if they really wanted to they could pass both DeSantis' map and their usual map as a backup in the case that DeSantis' map gets overturned by the courts.

They probably just straight up don't want his configuration.

[GALeftist]

Here is what I don't get. If no map is passed, the court draws a map. Why would DeSantis want that? As to the internecine Pub battle of the maps, they are not that much different, so why is DeSantis freaking out over not that much? I don't get that either. Does DeSantis have psychological problems? That is meant as a serious rather than tendentious question. The man genuinely puzzles me.

I don't think DeSantis is actually that concerned with getting a maximal gerrymander. He'd probably prefer one, but it is tangential to his actual goal of continuing to get fawning coverage from the national right-wing media, which he hopes will be enough to offset his abject lack of charisma.

[GALeftist]

Lot of people seem to be avoiding the Occam's Razor explanation here, which is that DeSantis wants as many Republican seats as possible.

If DeSantis wants as many Republican seats as possible, I'll provide him with a foolproof plan, free of charge.

1. Make your intentions clear to the legislature months in advance.
2. Go public with your disagreements only as a last resort; avoid needless antagonization.
3. Focus on Tampa, Miami, and Orlando to the exclusion of North Florida, which is far more legally and parochially fraught and is a fraction as important as those metro areas.
4. Be willing to concede to lawmakers who want ideal seats as long as you're getting something in return.

I think he literally did the opposite of this at every step.

[GALeftist]

Here is what I don't get. If no map is passed, the court draws a map. Why would DeSantis want that? As to the internecine Pub battle of the maps, they are not that much different, so why is DeSantis freaking out over not that much? I don't get that either. Does DeSantis have psychological problems? That is meant as a serious rather than tendentious question. The man genuinely puzzles me.

I don't think DeSantis is actually that concerned with getting a maximal gerrymander. He'd probably prefer one, but it is tangential to his actual goal of continuing to get fawning coverage from the national right-wing media, which he hopes will be enough to offset his abject lack of charisma.

I don't see how pursuing something that makes his own party in Florida disdain him and is doomed to failure and will backfire would improve his appeal to anyone. Also the guy will have to compete with Trump for favor with the right wing media, and Trump hates him.

It fits pretty neatly into a brave outsider vs. swampy establishment narrative, whether or not he wins. I doubt he plans on sticking around in Tallahassee much longer so from his perspective who cares what his party thinks of him?

[GALeftist]

The worst part of this is all the DeSantis fellating I have to look forward to in the coming weeks from terminally online conservatives.