New Hampshire Primary Thread (polls close at 6-7 CT)

[GALeftist]

There's been a lot of talk about what a disastrous underperformance this is for Bernie, but it's not really. He's at 26% with 73% in, so if he ends up getting that then he underperformed his polling average by a point, maybe 2 or 3 if you're generous. The real story here is that the race isn't as fractured as polling would have indicated. From a cursory glance, it seems as though a fair portion of Warren and Biden supporters broke towards Klobuchar and Buttigieg, along with undecideds breaking disproportionately for those candidates (especially Klobuchar I guess). What does this mean for the rest of the primary? I don't know, maybe it's just a weird New Hampshire thing or maybe the divided field really isn't as divided as we think.

Side note but some of these results are really weird. How does Pittsburg have 19% voting for Tulsi?

[GALeftist]

Klobuchar has taken a lot of votes from Warren too along with Biden votes. I don't think people even care about ideology anymore.

Yeah what in the world. I guess Atlas is kind of a bubble but how are voters making these nonsensical evaluations of second choices

[GALeftist]

78% reporting and Sanders is starting to lead by more than 2% again. Not familiar enough with NH demographics to say for sure if this trend will continue

[GALeftist]

So probably a Sanders win, but narrower than his camp might have liked. How does this play out in terms of the media narrative? Unlike Iowa, the narrative won't be about the mismanagement of the primary. Will it be just straight "Bernie Wins"? "Buttigieg almost wins"? "Klobuchar surges"? "Warren and Biden collapse"? Really any of these narratives could create dramatically different environments heading into Nevada

[GALeftist]

This also exposes a lot of Sanders's 2016 support as a reaction against Clinton, which might be relevant to remember as the campaign heads into areas like Appalachia and the Midwest