Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion

[GALeftist]

Hypothetical map with no VRA. Maine Rule!

Thank God for LBJ.

[GALeftist]

Also, hot take: Bourdeaux isn't "safe" in this newly-proposed 7th. I suppose it depends on what you consider safe, but just look at these figures:



In a presidential year Democratic primary, this is likely closer to a 50% black, 25% white, 25% other electorate. In a midterm primary, it'll skew more white (for now) - but with each passing year, the demographics in Gwinnett continue to accelerate against whites at an almost unbelievable speed.

If the right black candidate and/or enough black voters decide they want a more representative representative, then goodbye Boring Bourdeaux. Of course, the non-black constituencies might also band together behind a more progressive Latino or Asian candidate and have a similar chance at primarying her.

If a voter in Antonio Delgado's district in NY decided to vote for his White opponent for a more representative representative, is that something you'd support?

It's not like black voters aren't willing to elect white democrats. Hell, Steve Cohen has held a VRA seat in Memphis since 2006 and has absolutely demolished every primary opponent. If Bourdeaux loses, it'll be her own fault for dumb blue dog stunts like that letter she sent to Pelosi which alienate her constituents.

[GALeftist]

Another vulnerable district in this is GA-12,  only Trump+10 and has all of the Augusta metro.   That's not going to be safe for the decade either.

I was about to say that looked a little risky. Overall a bad day for out-of-state laser eyes conservative Twitter teens

[GALeftist]

Yeah after playing around a bit I think Georgia is definitely the most fertile ground for a Section 2 claim other than Alabama and Louisiana. Additionally, it's harder to do four VRA seats in Atlanta while also axing McBath than I thought at first. If I were them and I failed to defend the current map in court I'd probably just take the L and keep a D sink in the northern suburbs – otherwise you're really playing with fire given how fast those areas are growing and shifting left, and frankly the current gerrymander is spread a bit thin in the north anyway.

[GALeftist]

Georgia drawn to the Muon2 rules. GA-02 does not need to be black performing. The blacks already have their "quota" out of the Atlanta MSA (which is absolutely monstrous by the way).

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a57ba42e-f4b5-4274-85f3-6fe8bd362f35

Actually, 5 seats is a little closer to proportional than 4. Also my understanding of Gingles (and I could be wrong about this so please correct me if so) is that proportionality doesn't enter into it, it only matters if a compact majority-minority performing district can be drawn. For these reasons I would argue that GA-02 is protected.

Nevertheless, interesting map. In Georgia specifically though I think it makes more sense to have a district that encompasses the entire City of Atlanta even if it spans Fulton and DeKalb. Also, I think counties like Morgan, Walton, and Barrow are a bit mismatched with the more core suburban counties like Gwinnett, Clayton, and Henry

[GALeftist]

Georgia drawn to the Muon2 rules. GA-02 does not need to be black performing. The blacks already have their "quota" out of the Atlanta MSA (which is absolutely monstrous by the way).

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a57ba42e-f4b5-4274-85f3-6fe8bd362f35

Actually, 5 seats is a little closer to proportional than 4. Also my understanding of Gingles (and I could be wrong about this so please correct me if so) is that proportionality doesn't enter into it, it only matters if a compact majority-minority performing district can be drawn. For these reasons I would argue that GA-02 is protected.

Nevertheless, interesting map. In Georgia specifically though I think it makes more sense to have a district that encompasses the entire City of Atlanta even if it spans Fulton and DeKalb. Also, I think counties like Morgan, Walton, and Barrow are a bit mismatched with the more core suburban counties like Gwinnett, Clayton, and Henry

There are 5 black performing CD's, plus whites are beginning to vote for blacks, so the VRA probably does not apply to the subject 5 CD's at all. Once the blacks get their quota, nothing further is protected, even if GA-02 could be drawn to get to 50% BVAP, triggering Gingles.

Morgan, Walton and Barrow are in the Atlanta MSA, and that is all that counts. One MSA county is not more equal than others. Counties take precedence over cities when it comes to splitting. You give DeKalb and Cobb their own CD's since it leads to just tiny county micro-chops, which are favored. In fact, the map amazingly is all micro-chops except in two instances, so it is clearly the highest scoring possible map.

One follows the Muon2 rules mindlessly as it were, wherever they might lead. They generally lead to a pretty good place. One plus to them is that they give points to keeping multi county MSA's together, which tends often to lead to competitive districts, since it forces the placing or cities and their suburbs in one CD.

Ah I see, cool. Not saying that your map is suboptimal from that perspective, just my subjective preference for a different configuration

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/hansilowang/status/1681033115937001472

Federal racial gerrymandering trial for Georgia will be held on September 5.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/28e211cc-d061-4dc3-811e-00fd381d9492

Here's a map I threw together that has 4 Black districts in Atlanta but tries to limit Democrats to 5 seats total and mess around with other districts as little as possible. It's not easy, though. If you shift 7 enough to be majority Black, you end up with over 500k voters in Fulton and Gwinnett who are now like Biden+8; the approach I took above made GA-09 about Trump+8 in 2020. That by itself is not safe in a blue wave, but the hypothetical district above was actually Trump+19 in 2016! Of course, you could try to siphon off some of the libs into GA-10 or GA-14, but you're already cracking the northern suburbs three ways in the above map and it starts getting ugly fast. Bottom line, if black voters prevail in this lawsuit, it will not be good news at all for the GOP.

[GALeftist]

What is the margin in GA-10?

Like Trump+23. Didn't change that one; one reason is that Athens being towards the north of that district makes it kind of awkward to use it to crack Gwinnett

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/hansilowang/status/1681033115937001472

Federal racial gerrymandering trial for Georgia will be held on September 5.

Its hard to keep track of all the cases, but these are the two legislative-only suits which were consolidated to the Pendergrass Congressional suit. These were the cases that solely concerned Section 2 and no 14th Amendment racial gerrymandering claims (6th radical change), asked for a PI, failed, and then got stalled waiting for Milligan. There was notice of a accelerated schedule since Milligan, this is that.

The one with Racial Gerrymandering 14th Amendment claims is Georgia State Conference of the NAACP v. Georgia which is consolidated with Common Cause v. Raffensperger. They remain on prior schedule for the late fall, but may similarly be accelerated since additional briefing was requested in light of Milligan.

Quite right, should've been more accurate with my language; thank you!

[GALeftist]

What is the margin in GA-10?

Like Trump+23. Didn't change that one; one reason is that Athens being towards the north of that district makes it kind of awkward to use it to crack Gwinnett

You could probably swap territory between 9 and 10. Also, 7 could be made black plurality to allow it take in more territory towards its southern end.

You could do something like this:



But A. it looks atrocious (in my opinion) and B. you have essentially the same problem. Now you've got:

GA-11: Trump2016+25 –> Trump2020+15
GA-06: Trump2016+27 –> Trump2020+15
GA-09: Trump2016+25 –> Trump2020+15
GA-10: Trump2016+22 –> Trump2020+16

It was already generally acknowledged that GA-11 and GA-06 had flip potential to begin with and now you essentially have two more identical districts. Maybe this gerrymander holds for the decade, but I wouldn't bet on it, and I further wouldn't bet on all these incumbents rolling the dice on potential flips down the line. Not sure what you mean about GA-07, but there's not much blue territory to its south to expand into, and anyway I'm not sure the courts would look kindly on trying to skirt the rules with black plurality districts. I guess my point is I think this could easily get dicey for Georgia Republicans.

[GALeftist]

One thing the Alabama situation is making me wonder: suppose, for the sake of argument, the courts rule that 4 Black districts are necessary in Atlanta. What happens then? Would Clyde and possibly Collins be cool with significantly weakening their districts to preserve the gerrymander? Would the GAGOP even consider punting to the courts like Alabama is right now? It's one thing in Alabama because the rest of the state is so red, but you've got to imagine that a special master remap of Atlanta could get dicey fast.

[GALeftist]

https://apnews.com/article/georgia-redistricting-trial-congress-vote-minorities-b630e253d8bb8859e5fca74773e279b8

Here's an article summarizing Day 1 of the trial.

[GALeftist]

The bit about putting the VRA district in the western suburbs is an interesting twist that I certainly didn't expect. I think it probably makes the ruling a bit weaker upon appeal, but if it's upheld, it puts the GAGOP in an interesting position of either locking in an 8-6 or trying shenanigans to maintain 9-5 that could lead to a fair map.