IA-SEN 2020: Ernst megathread

[GALeftist]

OK, after poll after poll of Ernst trailing by healthy margins, I feel pretty confident putting this at Tilt D. IA-Pres will be very close, and if Greenfield runs just a couple points ahead of Biden (which seems quite likely) then that should be all she needs.

[GALeftist]

Well, the people of Kentucky would have been better off today, had they elected Bevin instead of this incompetent hack Beshear.

Yes, because the track record of Republican governors in handling COVID has been just stellar across the board.

Yes, it has. The economy of the states with Democratic governors has suffered much more than the economy of the states with Republican governors.

THE LINE GOD DEMANDS BLOOD. LIVES OF GEORGIANS MUST BE GIVEN SO THAT LINE GOD MIGHT BLESS US AND GO UP. LINE GOD APOSTASY WILL NOT BE TOLERATED. LINUS VULT.

As a resident of Kempland, I can tell you that no one is enamored with his handling of the virus, and the same is probably true for most states with red governors.

[GALeftist]

Y'all, it's just one poll, and Siena polls have been janky across the board this cycle. Keeping this at tilt D.

[GALeftist]

Y'all, idk if court packing will happen either (I've been disappointed by fence sitting dems too much thus far), but Biden and Schumer aren't clowns. They've clearly talked to Manchin, Sinema, and whoever else about this, that's why everyone is dodging questions on it and saying stuff about how they're "not a fan" or "apprehensive" and whatnot. Every dodge is more political capital they're sinking into this, so either it's all one big bluff (which would be just astoundingly incompetent even for the Democratic Party) or they are at least seriously considering it.

[GALeftist]

Bad state. I wish I could be like SN and say to just junk it, but I think it's more likely than not that Ernst squeaks it out.

[GALeftist]

Ernst is up four. Well, this one was fun while it lasted. Guess the pig castrator gets six more years.

Let's be honest, she's a lifer if she wants to be. I guess Iowa loves incumbents after all.

I don’t think it’s so much about incumbents as it is IA being a red state now. Still, the fact that Democrats need to win Senate seats in red states to win a majority just shows how unrepresentative it is.

To be fair, Democrats had a lot of missed opportunities (WI-2016, PA-2016, NC-2016, FL-2018). Also the small state advantage is canceled out by the fact that the smaller the state, the higher the chance it defects from it's usual partisanship.

I'd argue Texas or even Ohio are much easier lifts than, like, Wyoming or Idaho.

[GALeftist]

Shouldn't have doubted Selzer.

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/RobSandIA/status/1352417207377162240

Bruh please just run for governor. Senate is unwinnable