Orange County, California: Rise and Fall (?) of a Conservative Bastion

[War on Want]

That's nice, but who cares?

Obama may or not carry the OC in 2012 (although, as others believe, I think he would, running against Huckabee or Palin), but a Democratic victory is "inevitable" in the near-future... within the next 20 years, at least.

Unless you believe that Orange County will start getting whiter (lol), I don't see how this doesn't happen.

Hispanics voted overwhelmingly Democratic in 2008 because of the housing and financial crises. That won't happen again. Plus, Hispanics are becoming more conservative on economics as they integrate in to the middle class here.

According to the last PPP Obama approval poll Latinos approve of his performance 74-21, compared to the overal 49-47. That is 25 points better than the national average. I don't think that judging how Democratic Latinos are based on one approval poll is a good idea but I have not seen a shred of evidence that suggests that Latinos are trending back towards the Republicans.

[War on Want]

That's nice, but who cares?

Obama may or not carry the OC in 2012 (although, as others believe, I think he would, running against Huckabee or Palin), but a Democratic victory is "inevitable" in the near-future... within the next 20 years, at least.

Unless you believe that Orange County will start getting whiter (lol), I don't see how this doesn't happen.

Hispanics voted overwhelmingly Democratic in 2008 because of the housing and financial crises. That won't happen again. Plus, Hispanics are becoming more conservative on economics as they integrate in to the middle class here.

According to the last PPP Obama approval poll Latinos approve of his performance 74-21, compared to the overal 49-47. That is 25 points better than the national average. I don't think that judging how Democratic Latinos are based on one approval poll is a good idea but I have not seen a shred of evidence that suggests that Latinos are trending back towards the Republicans.

That was not a CA poll. CA is undergoing a transition, like NJ, where the suburbs and middle class and rural areas are moving back toward the Republicans. They trended left early (during the 90s) when the rest of the country moved right, and it is now being corrected. In fact, valley Hispanics in 2008 elected a white Republican over a Hispanic Democrat, giving the GOP their only pick-up in the state Assembly. Orange County may have trended hard left for 08 but it will return back home soon, along with San Diego and San Bernadino.

What is this based on?

Based on trends, demographics, the fact that Jim Costa can't even visit small farm towns anymore, and an overall GOP rebound in CA and nationwide.

Uhhh can you show where these trends and demographics are observable?

[War on Want]

So like, McCain an ex-Pow was not able to get a county with a large military veteran population? Explain this to me...

Does OC really have a large veteran population? It may have been true once but I am not sure if that is so anymore. Remember a lot of older whites from California have been leaving the state for years. These people live in Arizona, Nevada and Idaho these days.

My town is filled with these annoyances.

I'm not sure what is worse old exburban/suburban Californians moving to my state or the white trash that lived here for years before.