Edwards' impact

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I think Edwards is about a 2% permanent boost to Kerry's nationwide numbers.  It will be more in some states than others...among states that matter, probably more in the Midwest, less in the Southwest.   Effectively, all the Midwestern toss-up states now become Lean Kerry.

No other Democrat would have brought a percentible gain to Kerry's nationwide numbers... although McCain would have boosted him by 6-8%.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I think Edwards is about a 2% permanent boost to Kerry's nationwide numbers.  It will be more in some states than others...among states that matter, probably more in the Midwest, less in the Southwest.   Effectively, all the Midwestern toss-up states now become Lean Kerry.

No other Democrat would have brought a percentible gain to Kerry's nationwide numbers... although McCain would have boosted him by 6-8%.

Let's hope western PA is included in that "midwest" total.  Pennsylvania would now be a lock for Kerry!

On MSNBC this morning, they repeatedly made the pont that Kerry could be locking down PA early by making the announcement in Pittsburgh, right on the heels of Rendell pushing through a big property tax cut.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Outside of LBJ's giving Kennedy Texas and one or two southern states in 1960, no VP has ever made a difference in the results of a presidential election.

Lieberman came 269 votes from doing just that in 2000.

I don't think this is true...Lieberman in the end was not a very good VP candidate.  He simply was unwilling to win his debate with Cheney, and never gave a convincing reason why voters should support the principles of the Democratic party.  

Lieberman probably helped Gore in Florida, but a candidate who was more charismatic and in sync with Gore's campaign message would have performed better in the midwest and nationwide.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

NickG,

Who do you think Gore should have picked?

Maybe Russ Feingold?  Or even Paul Wellstone.  I know he strongly considered Edwards, but he might have been too inexperienced at that point.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Feingold and Wellstone would have ensured Gore win in Wisconsin, Iowa, and Minnesota.  But it ended up that Gore won those anyway.

If he went with one of those two he would have lost Florida by 2-3%.

You're probably right about Florida.  But I think Gore could have won Ohio by picking one of those two combined with NOT giving up on the state by pulling his ads.

This is all in hindsight of course.  I wasn't critical of the Lieberman pick when it was first made.  Its weakness was only apparent after (1) the VP debate and (2) Gore unveiled his (very successful) "people vs. the powerful" message at the convention, which Lieberman didn't mesh well with.