DC statehood Megathread (pg 33 - Manchin questioning constitutionality)

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

What is the population of each of those new states in California?  I think is you were going to divide the state, you'd need roughly equal population in each new state.

In my mind, the most reasonable way to divide up CA would be into 3 states each with 12-14 million people:
Northern California: everything north of Monterey.
Central California (or Coastal CA?): LA County, Monterey, Kern, and stuff in between
Southern California: Orange, San Diego, and inland empire

Alternately, I guess you could make a state that's just LA and Orange and then swap Monterey, Santa Barbara, Kern, etc. into Southern California.

Nevertheless, you can't just divide up a state to gain Senate seats for one party.  You'd need a compelling reason why the citizens of California would be better off by dismantling their existing state government which is itself a massive institution with enormous obligations and legacy costs including state highways, pensions, multiple university systems, etc.

I completely support statehood for DC and PR though.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

The Democrats are f**king clowns. I don’t get why this forum defends them so much.

All the winning probably has something to do with it. Y'know, the House; the presidency & the vice presidency; the Senate; the $1.9T stimulus package polling at +40 approval that wouldn't be possible without the Democratic trifecta; the incoming jobs, infrastructure, & climate change package that wouldn't be possible without the Democratic trifecta; etc.

You can’t be serious. It took a meltdown by the GOP to win the Senate. The House was a complete abortion. They should’ve won a majority large enough to last 4-6 years. Instead it’s small enough where there’s virtually no chance of saving it. And the Presidency - I mean the fact it was as close as it was when (IMO) Biden was a great canidate and Trump was literally the worst President of all-time. So Dems get no credit for “winning” except maybe Georgia.

• They’re blundering the Covid relief bill. By taking forever to pass it and bickering back & forth - to the point where voters are going to feel more “finally” instead of thankful and happy.

• It seems likely an infrastructure bill might on the horizon but who knows how watered down it’ll be

• Statehood which would have been HUGE to help even out the structural unfairness (at least a little)

• The voting rights bill isn’t going to be passed.

• No minimum wage hike is going to happen.

• A public option won’t happen.

So Id have to say they’ve been a MAJOR letdown so far

If you actually have any real information behind any of your opinions, feel free to post it.

Otherwise, your constant doomer fantasy troll posting is just tiresome.  Haven't you been proven wrong enough yet?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Awesome that partisan power grabs are being shot down!

The Americans living in DC not getting to have Congressional representation just because Republicans don't want them electing Democrats is the partisan power grab. And yes, it is nice that Jim Crow II will finally end for DC later this year.

Next up are the territories - their Jim Crow will come to an end soon too.

It’s pretty obvious this is a power grab. Maybe the Republicans opposing it also a power grab, but if this was really about giving the people of DC representation, it would’ve been done all the other times the Democrats held power. Now that they realize that their old coalition isn’t working, they’re trying to find ways to get back power.

It wasn’t until 2016 that the residents of DC themselves actually passed a statehood referendum and a proppsed state constitution.  So the territory itself was not in a serious position to become a state before then.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

"Solving" the taxation without representation issue by making DC a state is like "solving" it by exempting DC residents from federal taxation and keeping the status quo. Highly cynical, and it doesn't even have the benefit of being cute like the tax exemption.

For that matter, it's like "solving" school shootings by closing down schools.

DC voted to become a state, overwhelmingly. This isn't just some scheme we made up without consulting the Americans living there.

The opinions of a jurisdiction's residents have never, and should never, have any constitutional validity over admission to statehood. Indirectly, through representative democracy, the opinions of the voters of the already-admitted states are the only thing that matters. Sure, a referendum provides a mandate for that jurisdiction's leaders to advocate for statehood, but if they're asking people the wrong question to begin with, it doesn't really prove anything.

It is true that according to the very sparse wording in the text of US Constitution, only Congress really matters in admitting new states.

But in practice, the opinion of the jurisdiction's residents absolutely matter.  First, every state has been required to ratify a state constitution prior to admission.  This was done in 1949 in Hawaii and 1956 in Alaska.  

And most recently, Congress has required a final referendum of the new state's residents before their Admission Act takes effect.  In the case of Alaska in 1958 and Hawaii in 1959, these referenda were held a few months after Congress passed the admission act.

In the case of possible Puerto Rico statehood, this side of things remains somewhat unresolved.
But the 2016 DC referendum approved of both statehood and the proposed state constitution by an 86%-14% margin.

Resident of DC don't just want statehood because they want a few more Democratic Senators.  They actually want self-rule.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

So what are the actual odds of this passing? Haven't been fully paying attention to it.

According to Peak Harry, 100%.

I'm a lot more dubious. It requires Manchin and Sinema agreeing the filibuster should not apply to statehood. And Sinema says everything should require a 60 vote threshold.

What Sinema says =/= actual rules.

Ok? She needs to vote to uphold the filibuster won't apply. So what she thinks matters.

I think there are suggestions that the filibuster exemption in this case could be ruled by the parliamentarian, not a majority vote of the Senate changing the standing rules (because the admission of new states is governed by a different clause of the constitution than ordinary legislation).

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Do we know the how Manchin & Sinema feel about DC statehood?

Someone correct me if that is outdated, but Manchin said he's open to DC statehood on Meet the press and CNN some weeks ago. Problem is that you need to abolish or change the filibuster rules, which he opposes. And I'm not optimistic there will be 10 GOP votes for statehood.

It's possible that the parliamentarian could rule that the filibuster does not apply to statehood admission.   This would not actually require a change to the filibuster, since this ruling would imply that the filibuster has never applied to statehood, and thus Manchin would be keeping his promise not to change it.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Hey Democrats!

If you're so angry about DC not getting representation, why don't just let them merge to Maryland? Instead of giving 2 senators and a rep to a single city?

...Maybe because you deep down know it's a blatant powergrab?

What do you mean "let them merge into Maryland"?  
Who in DC is asking to be merged into Maryland?  
Or do you mean force them to merge into Maryland?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I'm sure this has been asked before, but do y'all think Douglass would divide the new state into different counties and municipalities? Like would Georgetown be made into a new municipality with its own mayor and council? Who would be made governor until the next election, Bowser?

This is speculation, but I imagine that it would remain as one municipality where the city and state governments are one and the same, with just semantic changes (city council->state legislature, mayor->governor).  Municipal services are all already provided by the DC government, and there isn't really any major desire for any particular areas of the city to split off.

Muriel Bowser would certainly be the first governor, and I'm sure that she would run for reelection.

I believe the proposed structure of the Douglass Commonwealth legislature would be very similar to the DC city council. It would be unicameral and using the existing 8 wards as legislative districts.  The biggest change is that it would be a bit larger, electing two reps from each Ward instead of one, for a total size of 21 members (versus the current 13).  The Governor would be elected in basically the same way the Mayor is now.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

If DC becomes a state, will the US House size be increased to 436? And will it stay that way after the 2020 reapportionment?

Also when would elections be held for DC's two hypothetical senators and its representative in Congress?

By the way, the idea somebody mentioned earlier about adding Arlington County, Virginia into DC to make it bigger sounds based. Is there popular support for it?

It would temporarily increase to 436, and then go back down to 435 after the next round of apportionment.  Though I’m not sure exactly when the next round of apportionment “triggers”, so it’s possible that if statehood passes in 2022, it could stay at 436 for the whole decade.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

If DC becomes a state, will the US House size be increased to 436? And will it stay that way after the 2020 reapportionment?

Yes.

(1) PERMANENT INCREASE IN NUMBER OF MEMBERS.—Effective with respect to the Congress during which the State is admitted into the Union and each succeeding Congress, the House of Representatives shall be composed of 436 Members, including any Members representing the State.

Is this really in the bill?  I had no idea.  When AK and HI were added, they temporarily expanded to 437, but went back to 435 after the 1960 reapportionment.

This seems like a pretty bad idea.  If you are going to introduce a bill to expand the House, expand it in a meaningful way, but leave it at an odd number.  I suppose they just didn’t want to risk losing votes from the states that might lose the seat?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Welp...looks like this is dead for at least another 2 years....

Manchin says he doesn’t support D.C. statehood bill

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Let’s see how he actually votes

I can't imagine there will be a vote now.   Hopefully in 2023 if Dems gain Senate seats.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

If it’s unconstitutional for DC to become a state, how is it constitutional for them to merge into Maryland? 

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

So you’re saying it’s immoral for people you don’t like to vote? Also you are literally ignore the hundreds of thousands of poor black Washingtonians that make the majority of permanent resident whose jobs have little to do with the federal government…

They still vote on presidential elections, it's immoral for them to have senators and reps by any means. WTF was the point of a capital city if they're just going to end up a state. And if you live there and care so much about it, nobody is stopping you from moving somewhere else, it's your choice ultimately.

Also while we're at it, wouldn't DC have a huge advantage politically against the rest of the states since it hosts all the Chambers of Congress and the rest of the institutions?

By the way, DC is not majority black anymore, it's a plurality now by 2-5%, DC is on track to become majority white in the 2020s with people constantly settling in there, almost all of them are exclusively white with good paying jobs provided by the government, so the oppressed card doesn't work.

Every nation in the world has a capital city.  Can you name me a single one that doesn’t have the right to vote in their national elections?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

There’s literally no reason to do that rather than add it to an existing state outside of partisan concerns.

One reason is that what you are suggesting is NOT constitutional. 
The federal government can’t just add territory to a state without their consent.  And the states in question have good reason not to want DC added to their boundaries, as it would dilute their power in the Senate.

On the other hand, DC statehood as passed in the House is clearly constitutional, and adding new states has been done many times.  In fact, adding new states for purely partisan reasons has been done many times, so even if partisan concerns were the only concerns, DC statehood would land squarely within the American political tradition.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

And the states in question have good reason not to want DC added to their boundaries, as it would dilute their power in the Senate.

Wait, how does it do that?

The relative voting power of any citizen in the Senate is more diluted the larger the state is.