Fmr. Gov. NickG
NickG
Junior Chimp
Posts: 8,279
Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -3.49
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« on: August 30, 2020, 01:32:54 AM » |
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It looks like the unweighted result of the horserace Q was around Biden +11.
That’s not to say they should have published a Biden +11 topline. There are almost certainly too many Dems in the sample just based on the 2016 reported vote.
But it’s does demonstrate how the results of these online polls are often much more a function of weighting decisions by the pollster than any sincere attempt to get a representative sample in the first place.
This wouldn’t necessarily create any systematic bias in the poll’s reported result (unlike what Trafalgar is doing, for instance). But it will often exaggerate any idiosyncracies in response from the part of the population that got undersampled. (Most famously in the case of the one young black Trump supporter that got counted as like 30 people in each iteration of the USC poll last cycle.)
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