10/31 Zogby, WP, Fox/OD Tied, BOT Bush+1, TIPP Bush+5, Movement??

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It's the weekend. Kerry polls well on weekends.

As I posted in another thread, this is not supported by the data.  Here are the average Bush leads in the tracking polls by day of the week over the last thirty days (updated since I posted yesterday):

Saturday      2.26
Sunday            2.60
Monday           2.00
Tuesday           1.93
Wednesday    1.22
Thursday      2.23
Friday              2.13

Bush does best on Sunday and worst on Wednesday, suggesting he polls well on the weekends and badly from Sunday-Tuesday.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It's the weekend. Kerry polls well on weekends.

As I posted in another thread, this is not supported by the data.  Here are the average Bush leads in the tracking polls by day of the week over the last thirty days (updated since I posted yesterday):

Saturday      2.26
Sunday            2.60
Monday           2.00
Tuesday           1.93
Wednesday    1.22
Thursday      2.23
Friday              2.13

Bush does best on Sunday and worst on Wednesday, suggesting he polls well on the weekends and badly from Sunday-Tuesday.

Maybe I'm making a mistake, but it looks to me like your data actually sort of supports the notion Bush does poorly on weekends.

His lead on a Saturday is made up of the previous 3 days, correct? So that would be 3 weekdays. It looks like Sunday might drag him down through the first few weekdays.

Right...his biggest lead is on Sunday, which is made up of Thursday, Friday, and Saturday sample.   His smallest lead (Wed) is made up of Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday samples.   

Most people consider Friday and Saturday nights to be the weekend, and this is where Bush does the best.  If you consider Saturday and Sunday nights to be the weekend, then it's a wash, but certainly when I worked for a polling firm, we considered Friday night a weekend and Sunday night a weeknight, and this seems to be reflected in people's comments over the past two days about these polls.  It's also the way people in other industries see it, in terms of television scheduling, for instance.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Bush does best on Sunday and worst on Wednesday, suggesting he polls well on the weekends and badly from Sunday-Tuesday.

That doesn't make sense, wouldn't all the Bush voters be at church on Sunday?

I'm just going by the data.  But don't most people go to church on Sunday morning?  I know a lot of African-American churches meet Sunday evening, but I'm not sure about evangelicals.  In any case, if you are weighting by the appropriate demographics, it shouldn't make a difference.