Colorado 2008

[Rawlings]

I´ve created a graphic of Colorado´s Congressional voting pattern over the last 26 years and think some important aspects for 2008 can be seen here:



As you can see, there are some important similarities in the DEM rise between 1984 and 1992, when Clinton won Colorado, and between 2000 and 2006-08.

In 1990, the DEMs managed to get above 50% for the first time in a longer period and in 2006 this trend became more obvious with the DEM margin at 13% and the lowest support for the GOP in the last quarter century.

There are also similarities between Dukakis in '88 and Kerry in '04. Bush Sr.s margin of victory was about 8%, Bush Jr.s margin was about 5%.

Together with the fact that the trend towards the DEMs is higher in 2006 than it was in 1990, 2 years before Clinton won the state, I tend to say that Colorado will be a real battleground in 2008 with maybe even a slight advantage for the DEM candidate.

Any thoughts ?

Colorado has always voted for Democrats at the local and Congressional level.  That's nothing new.  Every few years the Democrats find somebody pro-gun or pro-life that fits the state's profile.  They get elected and the whole state starts believing the party has gone right.  Then voters realize they're the same old liberals with a makeover and they vote Republicans back in again.

The one thing Colorado doesn't do is vote Democrat for POTUS.  Clinton won in '92 because Colorado happened to be one of Perot's relative successes.  Without Perot Clinton would have been routed.

Also, the trend in Colorado--toward the Dems--is only mirrored by that of the country as a whole.  I don't put much credence in the idea that Colorado is moving left because, well, it is not moving left at all!  If there was some marked ideological shift I would be concerned.  But Colorado's votes on all kinds of ballot initiatives is just as conservative as it was in '92--right before they stormed back into power.  Don't associate voting Democrat for a couple of elections as a real, convincing move to the left.

For 2008 it is likely that Colorado will stay red.  The Senate race will be a thriller, but barring another monstrous 'blue wave' a la 2006, I think Schaffer will keep the seat for the GOP.  For the future Colorado is a state to watch.  It's not becoming California--but it could be the next New Mexico.

[Rawlings]

What, the 2nd district is hardly a battleground. I doubt the GOP will even really target this year despite being an open seat.

Congratulations on missing my point!

(FYI, when it was last open (1998) Udall won by just 2.4%. Things have obviously changed in Colorado since then... that's part of my point. The other part is to point out that things could (no, will. This is Colorado so the word has to be will) change again at some point in the (probably not all that distant) future).

Politics are cranky in Colorado.  They change all the time.  But that doesn't mean that Colorado grows more or less conservative.  What's so interesting about Colorado is that while being a fundamentally conservative place--except for Boulder and Denver (which make up less than 15% of the state's total population)--Colorado is always in play for both parties.

Colorado is no less conservative now than it was in 2000--it's just that the Democrats have crafted a great plan that beats Republicans.  The Democrats have three major millionaires that almost entirely fund Democratic campaigns, and the Dems have built a great infrastructure that can finally compete with the Republicans.  And it can't help when you run centrist Democrats, either.

So I caution you to note that Colorado may be turning to the Democrats--but it is not turning to the left.  That means that the GOP is far from done in this state.  2008 could be a big suprise for either party.

[Rawlings]

Together with the fact that the trend towards the DEMs is higher in 2006 than it was in 1990, 2 years before Clinton won the state, I tend to say that Colorado will be a real battleground in 2008 with maybe even a slight advantage for the DEM candidate.

Any thoughts ?

Colorado voters aren't particularly partisan.  In 2002, Owens was elected with 65% of the vote, while at the same time Ken Salazar was elected AG with 60% of the vote.

In 2006, while Ritter was getting 60%, the down ballot statewide races were right at 50%.

In 2006, the Republicans didn't run a congressional candidate in District 1.  While there was no chance of a win, a candidate would have boosted the statewide percentage about 4%.  You had the bitter primary in CD 6, which reduced the GOP percentage from 70% to 60%.  You had CD7 which was an open seat.

That was also the case in 2000, when the Dems had no candidate in the 4th and 5th. This happens all the time. But matter of fact is, that there´s a trend in the recent 25 years, that the Dems in the state went from 40% to now more than 50%. When it comes to ballot initiatives, even states like Oregon or Wisconsin, which went DEM in the last 2 pres. elections, voted down the "Gay Marriage Law" by a higher margin than Coloradoans did.

\

I won't argue on the POTUS%--it's correct but I don't think it's significant.  But on the ballot initiatives I would say Colorado has actually grown MORE--not less--socially conservative.  The marriage amendment won by 56%.  You're right that that is not an overwhelming amount.  But recall that in Arizona it actually lost.  The gay rights lobby put all their effort, all their money, and all their manpower into Colorado last year.  They knew they would get a great Democratic turnout, low GOP turnout, and it would be a very 'blue' year.  There was also a gay civil unions referendum on the ballot so they felt like if they couldn't beat the amendment they could still get civil unions.

Focus on the Family and Colorado conservtatives were outspent 5:1 in a Democratic year--yet we still got the marriage amendment passed and we voted down civil unions by a much larger margin than expected.  The state's biggest political donors are three gay multi-millionaires who have single-handedly pushed the Democrats into power here.  Imagine how overwhelming the gay rights defeat would have been if the marriage amendment would not have been so hotly contested.

We also turned down marijuana legalization by a very high margin in 2006.  Colorado is turning to the Dems--not the Left.  And since the Dems here are turning to the left--and the DNC in Denver won't help things--I imagine voters will return to the GOP quite soon.

[Rawlings]

I hereby announce that I will burn a 50€ bill if Colorado does NOT go Democratic in next years Presidential Election.

If CO stays Republican I will take a pic of the burning bill and put it on here.

DEAL!

You're betting against history, buddy (and I would argue, reality).  I will post a yardsign for the week after the election if Colorado goes blue, reading, "Colorado is a blue state."  I've got some yardsign hook-ups and I can get it nice and pretty.  I'll also post the pics.

I live in suburban Denver and, just to give you an idea about how passionately conservative much of the state is, if my yard isn't fire-bombed the sign will certainly be mutilated

[Rawlings]

I hereby announce that I will burn a 50€ bill if Colorado does NOT go Democratic in next years Presidential Election.

If CO stays Republican I will take a pic of the burning bill and put it on here.

DEAL!

You're betting against history, buddy (and I would argue, reality).  I will post a yardsign for the week after the election if Colorado goes blue, reading, "Colorado is a blue state."  I've got some yardsign hook-ups and I can get it nice and pretty.  I'll also post the pics.

I live in suburban Denver and, just to give you an idea about how passionately conservative much of the state is, if my yard isn't fire-bombed the sign will certainly be mutilated

A yard-sign with a 70$ glued on it ? Because I can make a yard sign myself without spending 70$. You need a higher stake for your bet, if not I just burn a 10€ bill ...

$70 plus the sign.  You've got yourself a deal!  The Rockies are only getting more--not less--conservative.  Where is the greatest growth of megachurches?  The exurbs of the west.  The real force of the social conservative movement in America has subtly shifted from the south (which, generally, is going to be much more competitive over the next couple of elections as easterners move south) to the west.  People proclaim the death of conservative colorado by force of californians.  What people don't get is that just as many Texans are moving it making it more conservative.