TX EMERSON Trump +7

[Gracile]

Weak for Trump.

Is it though? The margin is similar to 2020 and Biden is just sitting at 40% here. I don't think Texas is there yet in 2024 unless Biden wins reelection in a blowout.

Texas is fundamentally overrated for the democrats and while people make comparisons to GA there is one huge difference and that is that demographic changes in Georgia overwhelmingly benefit the democrats as African Americans vote 9:1 democratic while in Texas they only help a little bit as Hispanics/Asians more or less only give the democrats around a 1.5:1 advantage and sometimes less .

Also other than 2012-2016 Texas hasn't trended that D in one cycle

2000: 22 points more Republican than the Nation as a whole
2004: 21 Points more Republican than the Nation as a whole
2008: 19 Points more Republican than the Nation as a whole
2012: 20 points more Republican than the nation as a whole
2016: 11 points more Republican than the nation as a whole
2020 : 10 points more Republican than the nation as a whole


What this shows is trends due to demographics only net the democrats around 1 point in Texas while the 2012/16 trend was more or less due to a huge change in the Republican Party during that time which caused many white suburbanite voters to switch democratic

?

You listed four election cycles here where Texas trended Democratic (though tbf not by very large margins in 2004, 2008, and 2020 - and those elections had significant internal contradictory trends with parts of rural TX becoming more Republican in the 2000s and the Latino South and West Texas shifts in 2020 counteracting some of the gains Democrats made in the large metros).

[Gracile]

Weak for Trump.

Is it though? The margin is similar to 2020 and Biden is just sitting at 40% here. I don't think Texas is there yet in 2024 unless Biden wins reelection in a blowout.

Texas is fundamentally overrated for the democrats and while people make comparisons to GA there is one huge difference and that is that demographic changes in Georgia overwhelmingly benefit the democrats as African Americans vote 9:1 democratic while in Texas they only help a little bit as Hispanics/Asians more or less only give the democrats around a 1.5:1 advantage and sometimes less .

Also other than 2012-2016 Texas hasn't trended that D in one cycle

2000: 22 points more Republican than the Nation as a whole
2004: 21 Points more Republican than the Nation as a whole
2008: 19 Points more Republican than the Nation as a whole
2012: 20 points more Republican than the nation as a whole
2016: 11 points more Republican than the nation as a whole
2020 : 10 points more Republican than the nation as a whole


What this shows is trends due to demographics only net the democrats around 1 point in Texas while the 2012/16 trend was more or less due to a huge change in the Republican Party during that time which caused many white suburbanite voters to switch democratic

?

You listed four election cycles here where Texas trended Democratic (though tbf not by very large margins in 2004, 2008, and 2020 - and those elections had significant internal contradictory trends with parts of rural TX becoming more Republican in the 2000s and the Latino South and West Texas shifts in 2020 counteracting some of the gains Democrats made in the large metros).

The point is that Texas has actually had a consistent one to two point trend to the democrats each cycle with the exception of 2016 . 2016 saw a huge trend to the democrats because that is the election where so many college educated white Republican voters that were Titanium R voters till 2016 shifted hard democratic but since then it's gone back to one to two point democratic trends .

So really Texas likely outside 2008 style waves wont be winnable for the democrats this decade .

I don't see Texas as winnable in 2024 either, but the consistency with which it has trended Democratic over many election cycles (even if not by a lot) is still significant. I think going to Romney levels in the large urban/suburban counties is pretty unlikely even if Trump is not the nominee (as evidenced by the 2022 gubernatorial result). The GOP's best bet going forward is continuing to make gains with Hispanic voters - not just in South/West Texas but in urban centers to offset Democratic gains in the large metros.