TX EMERSON Trump +7

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/texas-2022-abbott-holds-ten-point-lead-for-governor-majority-of-voters-support-migrant-busing/

Trump 47
BIDEN 40
Someone 9
Undecided 3

[Person Man]

Trump probably needs to win Texas by 5 to win.

[pbrower2a]

Weak for Trump.

[Agafin]

Texas is trending D at a rate of approximately 0.1% per year.

[President Johnson]

Weak for Trump.

Is it though? The margin is similar to 2020 and Biden is just sitting at 40% here. I don't think Texas is there yet in 2024 unless Biden wins reelection in a blowout.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Weak for Trump.

Is it though? The margin is similar to 2020 and Biden is just sitting at 40% here. I don't think Texas is there yet in 2024 unless Biden wins reelection in a blowout.

Texas is fundamentally overrated for the democrats and while people make comparisons to GA there is one huge difference and that is that demographic changes in Georgia overwhelmingly benefit the democrats as African Americans vote 9:1 democratic while in Texas they only help a little bit as Hispanics/Asians more or less only give the democrats around a 1.5:1 advantage and sometimes less .

Also other than 2012-2016 Texas hasn't trended that D in one cycle

2000: 22 points more Republican than the Nation as a whole
2004: 21 Points more Republican than the Nation as a whole
2008: 19 Points more Republican than the Nation as a whole
2012: 20 points more Republican than the nation as a whole
2016: 11 points more Republican than the nation as a whole
2020 : 10 points more Republican than the nation as a whole


What this shows is trends due to demographics only net the democrats around 1 point in Texas while the 2012/16 trend was more or less due to a huge change in the Republican Party during that time which caused many white suburbanite voters to switch democratic

[Epaminondas]

Also other than 2012-2016 Texas hasn't trended that D in one cycle

2000: 22 points more Republican than the Nation as a whole
2004: 21 Points more Republican than the Nation as a whole
2008: 19 Points more Republican than the Nation as a whole
2012: 20 points more Republican than the nation as a whole
2016: 11 points more Republican than the nation as a whole
2020 : 10 points more Republican than the nation as a whole

Linear trendline is 2 points every 3 years: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/znz4z8ukw2
(tiny bit less if outlier 2012 is included, more if included)

That would mean 9 more years needed under the observation that the US is structurally a Dem+4 country in normal presidential years.

2034 here we come.

[pbrower2a]

What saves Texas for the GOP is that such small cities as Odessa, Midland, Amarillo, Lubbock, Abilene, Wichita Falls, and Waco are still much more R than the typical cities of such size. Texas has some giant cities, and where the traffic jams are comes the taste for big, liberal government.

Texas is beginning to look like a microcosm of America (except for having large minority communities), and Republicans have won only one electoral majority for the Presidency after 1992.  Texas used to be poorer, more rural, and less educated than America as a whole; all of those tendencies have favored Republicans since the 1990's. That's over.     

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Trump is the only one with any chance of losing TX, and I think even he would probably triumph. Biden is not going to put money in such a large state that he doesn't even need to win. I'm not sure it's ready yet, but AK has less media markets and is trending dem quickly

[OSR stands with Israel]

What saves Texas for the GOP is that such small cities as Odessa, Midland, Amarillo, Lubbock, Abilene, Wichita Falls, and Waco are still much more R than the typical cities of such size. Texas has some giant cities, and where the traffic jams are comes the taste for big, liberal government.

Texas is beginning to look like a microcosm of America (except for having large minority communities), and Republicans have won only one electoral majority for the Presidency after 1992.  Texas used to be poorer, more rural, and less educated than America as a whole; all of those tendencies have favored Republicans since the 1990's. That's over.     

The reason Texas is Republican is not cause of rural areas but rather exurban areas and the fact that Texas keeps sprawling which turns more previously rural areas into exurbs

[Gracile]

Weak for Trump.

Is it though? The margin is similar to 2020 and Biden is just sitting at 40% here. I don't think Texas is there yet in 2024 unless Biden wins reelection in a blowout.

Texas is fundamentally overrated for the democrats and while people make comparisons to GA there is one huge difference and that is that demographic changes in Georgia overwhelmingly benefit the democrats as African Americans vote 9:1 democratic while in Texas they only help a little bit as Hispanics/Asians more or less only give the democrats around a 1.5:1 advantage and sometimes less .

Also other than 2012-2016 Texas hasn't trended that D in one cycle

2000: 22 points more Republican than the Nation as a whole
2004: 21 Points more Republican than the Nation as a whole
2008: 19 Points more Republican than the Nation as a whole
2012: 20 points more Republican than the nation as a whole
2016: 11 points more Republican than the nation as a whole
2020 : 10 points more Republican than the nation as a whole


What this shows is trends due to demographics only net the democrats around 1 point in Texas while the 2012/16 trend was more or less due to a huge change in the Republican Party during that time which caused many white suburbanite voters to switch democratic

?

You listed four election cycles here where Texas trended Democratic (though tbf not by very large margins in 2004, 2008, and 2020 - and those elections had significant internal contradictory trends with parts of rural TX becoming more Republican in the 2000s and the Latino South and West Texas shifts in 2020 counteracting some of the gains Democrats made in the large metros).

[OSR stands with Israel]

Weak for Trump.

Is it though? The margin is similar to 2020 and Biden is just sitting at 40% here. I don't think Texas is there yet in 2024 unless Biden wins reelection in a blowout.

Texas is fundamentally overrated for the democrats and while people make comparisons to GA there is one huge difference and that is that demographic changes in Georgia overwhelmingly benefit the democrats as African Americans vote 9:1 democratic while in Texas they only help a little bit as Hispanics/Asians more or less only give the democrats around a 1.5:1 advantage and sometimes less .

Also other than 2012-2016 Texas hasn't trended that D in one cycle

2000: 22 points more Republican than the Nation as a whole
2004: 21 Points more Republican than the Nation as a whole
2008: 19 Points more Republican than the Nation as a whole
2012: 20 points more Republican than the nation as a whole
2016: 11 points more Republican than the nation as a whole
2020 : 10 points more Republican than the nation as a whole


What this shows is trends due to demographics only net the democrats around 1 point in Texas while the 2012/16 trend was more or less due to a huge change in the Republican Party during that time which caused many white suburbanite voters to switch democratic

?

You listed four election cycles here where Texas trended Democratic (though tbf not by very large margins in 2004, 2008, and 2020 - and those elections had significant internal contradictory trends with parts of rural TX becoming more Republican in the 2000s and the Latino South and West Texas shifts in 2020 counteracting some of the gains Democrats made in the large metros).

The point is that Texas has actually had a consistent one to two point trend to the democrats each cycle with the exception of 2016 . 2016 saw a huge trend to the democrats because that is the election where so many college educated white Republican voters that were Titanium R voters till 2016 shifted hard democratic but since then it's gone back to one to two point democratic trends .

So really Texas likely outside 2008 style waves wont be winnable for the democrats this decade .

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Weak for Trump.

Is it though? The margin is similar to 2020 and Biden is just sitting at 40% here. I don't think Texas is there yet in 2024 unless Biden wins reelection in a blowout.

Texas is fundamentally overrated for the democrats and while people make comparisons to GA there is one huge difference and that is that demographic changes in Georgia overwhelmingly benefit the democrats as African Americans vote 9:1 democratic while in Texas they only help a little bit as Hispanics/Asians more or less only give the democrats around a 1.5:1 advantage and sometimes less .

Also other than 2012-2016 Texas hasn't trended that D in one cycle

2000: 22 points more Republican than the Nation as a whole
2004: 21 Points more Republican than the Nation as a whole
2008: 19 Points more Republican than the Nation as a whole
2012: 20 points more Republican than the nation as a whole
2016: 11 points more Republican than the nation as a whole
2020 : 10 points more Republican than the nation as a whole


What this shows is trends due to demographics only net the democrats around 1 point in Texas while the 2012/16 trend was more or less due to a huge change in the Republican Party during that time which caused many white suburbanite voters to switch democratic

?

You listed four election cycles here where Texas trended Democratic (though tbf not by very large margins in 2004, 2008, and 2020 - and those elections had significant internal contradictory trends with parts of rural TX becoming more Republican in the 2000s and the Latino South and West Texas shifts in 2020 counteracting some of the gains Democrats made in the large metros).

The point is that Texas has actually had a consistent one to two point trend to the democrats each cycle with the exception of 2016 . 2016 saw a huge trend to the democrats because that is the election where so many college educated white Republican voters that were Titanium R voters till 2016 shifted hard democratic but since then it's gone back to one to two point democratic trends .

So really Texas likely outside 2008 style waves wont be winnable for the democrats this decade .

Biden is plus 9 v your candidate DeSantis and a 52/45 Eday like 2008 will produce a TX or FL result do waves happen 2 yrs prior to Eday no but 1 month before

[jamestroll]

Texas is welcomed to be its own country if it wants. We do not need them here.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We aren't gonna win TX but it's wave insurance anyway more like Matthew Sancrainte in FL win

But Sancrainte is openly gay like Santos we have TX as a backup plan

 



Biden 247 DeSantis 187 D 50/47 Eday, RS won't won a single Rust belt state

DeSantis isnt inevitable IAN BLEW AWAY YACHT FROM RICH PEOPLE NOT POOR OR MIDDLE CLASS PEOPLE DONT OWN YACHTS

[Gracile]

Weak for Trump.

Is it though? The margin is similar to 2020 and Biden is just sitting at 40% here. I don't think Texas is there yet in 2024 unless Biden wins reelection in a blowout.

Texas is fundamentally overrated for the democrats and while people make comparisons to GA there is one huge difference and that is that demographic changes in Georgia overwhelmingly benefit the democrats as African Americans vote 9:1 democratic while in Texas they only help a little bit as Hispanics/Asians more or less only give the democrats around a 1.5:1 advantage and sometimes less .

Also other than 2012-2016 Texas hasn't trended that D in one cycle

2000: 22 points more Republican than the Nation as a whole
2004: 21 Points more Republican than the Nation as a whole
2008: 19 Points more Republican than the Nation as a whole
2012: 20 points more Republican than the nation as a whole
2016: 11 points more Republican than the nation as a whole
2020 : 10 points more Republican than the nation as a whole


What this shows is trends due to demographics only net the democrats around 1 point in Texas while the 2012/16 trend was more or less due to a huge change in the Republican Party during that time which caused many white suburbanite voters to switch democratic

?

You listed four election cycles here where Texas trended Democratic (though tbf not by very large margins in 2004, 2008, and 2020 - and those elections had significant internal contradictory trends with parts of rural TX becoming more Republican in the 2000s and the Latino South and West Texas shifts in 2020 counteracting some of the gains Democrats made in the large metros).

The point is that Texas has actually had a consistent one to two point trend to the democrats each cycle with the exception of 2016 . 2016 saw a huge trend to the democrats because that is the election where so many college educated white Republican voters that were Titanium R voters till 2016 shifted hard democratic but since then it's gone back to one to two point democratic trends .

So really Texas likely outside 2008 style waves wont be winnable for the democrats this decade .

I don't see Texas as winnable in 2024 either, but the consistency with which it has trended Democratic over many election cycles (even if not by a lot) is still significant. I think going to Romney levels in the large urban/suburban counties is pretty unlikely even if Trump is not the nominee (as evidenced by the 2022 gubernatorial result). The GOP's best bet going forward is continuing to make gains with Hispanic voters - not just in South/West Texas but in urban centers to offset Democratic gains in the large metros.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Weak for Trump.

Is it though? The margin is similar to 2020 and Biden is just sitting at 40% here. I don't think Texas is there yet in 2024 unless Biden wins reelection in a blowout.

Texas is fundamentally overrated for the democrats and while people make comparisons to GA there is one huge difference and that is that demographic changes in Georgia overwhelmingly benefit the democrats as African Americans vote 9:1 democratic while in Texas they only help a little bit as Hispanics/Asians more or less only give the democrats around a 1.5:1 advantage and sometimes less .

Also other than 2012-2016 Texas hasn't trended that D in one cycle

2000: 22 points more Republican than the Nation as a whole
2004: 21 Points more Republican than the Nation as a whole
2008: 19 Points more Republican than the Nation as a whole
2012: 20 points more Republican than the nation as a whole
2016: 11 points more Republican than the nation as a whole
2020 : 10 points more Republican than the nation as a whole


What this shows is trends due to demographics only net the democrats around 1 point in Texas while the 2012/16 trend was more or less due to a huge change in the Republican Party during that time which caused many white suburbanite voters to switch democratic

?

You listed four election cycles here where Texas trended Democratic (though tbf not by very large margins in 2004, 2008, and 2020 - and those elections had significant internal contradictory trends with parts of rural TX becoming more Republican in the 2000s and the Latino South and West Texas shifts in 2020 counteracting some of the gains Democrats made in the large metros).

The point is that Texas has actually had a consistent one to two point trend to the democrats each cycle with the exception of 2016 . 2016 saw a huge trend to the democrats because that is the election where so many college educated white Republican voters that were Titanium R voters till 2016 shifted hard democratic but since then it's gone back to one to two point democratic trends .

So really Texas likely outside 2008 style waves wont be winnable for the democrats this decade .

I don't see Texas as winnable in 2024 either, but the consistency with which it has trended Democratic over many election cycles (even if not by a lot) is still significant. I think going to Romney levels in the large urban/suburban counties is pretty unlikely even if Trump is not the nominee (as evidenced by the 2022 gubernatorial result). The GOP's best bet going forward is continuing to make gains with Hispanic voters - not just in South/West Texas but in urban centers to offset Democratic gains in the large metros.

I agree Republicans are not gonna return to Romney 2012 levels in the large urban/suburban counties and the best case scenario for Republicans in those areas imo is Abbott 2018 numbers.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Weak for Trump.

Is it though? The margin is similar to 2020 and Biden is just sitting at 40% here. I don't think Texas is there yet in 2024 unless Biden wins reelection in a blowout.

Texas is fundamentally overrated for the democrats and while people make comparisons to GA there is one huge difference and that is that demographic changes in Georgia overwhelmingly benefit the democrats as African Americans vote 9:1 democratic while in Texas they only help a little bit as Hispanics/Asians more or less only give the democrats around a 1.5:1 advantage and sometimes less .

Also other than 2012-2016 Texas hasn't trended that D in one cycle

2000: 22 points more Republican than the Nation as a whole
2004: 21 Points more Republican than the Nation as a whole
2008: 19 Points more Republican than the Nation as a whole
2012: 20 points more Republican than the nation as a whole
2016: 11 points more Republican than the nation as a whole
2020 : 10 points more Republican than the nation as a whole


What this shows is trends due to demographics only net the democrats around 1 point in Texas while the 2012/16 trend was more or less due to a huge change in the Republican Party during that time which caused many white suburbanite voters to switch democratic

?

You listed four election cycles here where Texas trended Democratic (though tbf not by very large margins in 2004, 2008, and 2020 - and those elections had significant internal contradictory trends with parts of rural TX becoming more Republican in the 2000s and the Latino South and West Texas shifts in 2020 counteracting some of the gains Democrats made in the large metros).

The point is that Texas has actually had a consistent one to two point trend to the democrats each cycle with the exception of 2016 . 2016 saw a huge trend to the democrats because that is the election where so many college educated white Republican voters that were Titanium R voters till 2016 shifted hard democratic but since then it's gone back to one to two point democratic trends .

So really Texas likely outside 2008 style waves wont be winnable for the democrats this decade .

I don't see Texas as winnable in 2024 either, but the consistency with which it has trended Democratic over many election cycles (even if not by a lot) is still significant. I think going to Romney levels in the large urban/suburban counties is pretty unlikely even if Trump is not the nominee (as evidenced by the 2022 gubernatorial result). The GOP's best bet going forward is continuing to make gains with Hispanic voters - not just in South/West Texas but in urban centers to offset Democratic gains in the large metros.

I agree Republicans are not gonna return to Romney 2012 levels in the large urban/suburban counties and the best case scenario for Republicans in those areas imo is Abbott 2018 numbers.

DeSantis is down 8 pts the same as the GCB was in 2018 do you know what the PVI was in 2012 it was 51/47 we aren't gonna win by 10 but a 53/47 result can turn TX blue DeSantis hasn't been put on record like Trump for  denounce Proud Boys , which means a pardon for insurrection bit Biden isn't gonna make that mistake like Christ instead of Crist asking him to run for Prez he should of asked him to denounce Proud Boys, TX isn't in play because RS have 170 but that doesn't include FL, OH, NC, AZ, GA, Biden was ahead of Trump in FL that is bad news for Svott with Matthew Sancrainte, Sancrainte is openly gay but Larry Craig was Gay too

You are very confident about DeSantis and the only Maga R that won was Vance in OH which isn't a 303 state all the other RS lost except for Johnson and he isn't Maga Michel's was Maga and he lost anyways in WI