Seems obvious that the result in Virginia is secure, but what is the benchmark percentage? Something less than McEachin's 63.8%?
I can see the Democratic vote share being slightly lower than that because this is a seat where Democrats are highly dependent on black turnout - which may be much lower in a special (compare this to seats where Democrats overperformed last year, like MN-01 and NY-19 that are demographically dissimilar and overwhelmingly white). McAuliffe also won this seat by slightly less than that (61-37).
McClellan's victory is still assured, but I don't think the circumstances are there for a considerable overperformance like some of last year's specials.
