It's a shame Jackson's 2020 run never materialized (though beating Tillis was hardly guaranteed given how NC voted and the state's overall Republican lean); he's going to have an uphill battle next year.
I think he would have won in 2020. He reminds me of Kander or 2018 Beto, but in a much less red state than Missouri or Texas. Biden got nearly 20000 more votes in defeat than Tillis did in victory, so I think he could have easily made up that gap.
I think it would have been close, but by no means guaranteed a victory. North Carolina has a stubborn R lean on the federal level.