2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California

[Gracile]

Katie Porter is running in the Biden+11 coastal seat.

Doesn't Michelle Steel live in that district too? I would guess if she does she moves to greener pastures.

CA-45, the Asian plurality, less Democratic district next door, seems like it would be a better fit for Steel if she wanted to move elsewhere.

[Gracile]

People really need to learn where the the Valley incumbents live

What did I say that was incorrect on this front? I noted that Harder had to either run in the Republican 5th or the 13th, which is blue leaning but much more Hispanic than the old 10th.

Given the demographic lean combined with how much of the seat is new for him I think there could be a theoretical lane for a Hispanic Dem challenger to beat him into the runoff spot. Sure he gets support as an incumbent but how much is he getting in areas he never represented in the first place?

That was not a comment on you, it was more the conversation in general and others who I have seen elsewhere. I thought I made this clear.

Incumbency guarantees enough. It's just simple math that has been confirmed by the past ten years of data. In your average uncompetitive seat, you have one serious opposition candidate getting 35-40ish% of the top-two vote. That is one slot down. A 'primary' challenger therefore must top the incumbent on round one to advance. Doing that when the electorate is not a partisan-only affair and has independent voters and others in the mix...it all becomes a heavier lift. On the other hand, this becomes easier to do when there are more of the dominant parties voters in the mix is easier, such as in the old CA-44 and CA-17.

Makes sense.

Do you (or anyone else) have a DRA link for the final maps btw?

It's literally on the top post of the last page.