Where's the Safe D option?
If you're to copy this from LCameron, at least use the same poll format.
You mean with the recent results and all?
Uh, yes? When handicapping races you have to consider the ways in which the electorate will be different from previous elections. Assuming that a given race will be close just because it was close in one election is oversimplifying a whole lot of factors. We have seen many times before that there are considerable discrepancies between how a district votes in a midterm vs. how it votes in a presidential year. Sometimes the whole environment can become so unfavorable to the point that a seat is just not winnable for a party. In CA-21's case, presidential year turnout will be much higher among D-leaning Hispanic voters. TJ Cox also won't be left for dead by the DCCC like he was in 2018, and I think it's naive to assume that Valadao would have an easier time when his opponent is well-funded (and a win for Valadao last year was expected to be easy given those circumstances).
Poll
