Likely D. Bustos is a strong incumbent and the GOP has barely any bench here.
The seats in the state legislature that overlap with IL-17 are predominantly Republican (including two legislative gains in this region in 2016 - SD-47 and HD-71 - helped in part by the Trump trend), so I wouldn't exactly call that a weak bench. I think one of the GOP's problems is that Bustos is a solid fundraiser and has maintained a level of crossover appeal to entrench herself. Because of that, many prospective GOP candidates haven't really put in an effort to take her down, and she's left facing weak opposition like that 9/11 truther she faced last year.
With that said, I'd still peg this race as only Likely D. I think Bustos will overperform the Democratic presidential nominee by a fair bit, though I can't shake the feeling that she could succumb to the broader national trend of politicians losing some crossover appeal - winning by thinner margins than in previous races.
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