Joe Biden 2020 campaign megathread v2

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IMO Biden is the presidential candidate least equipped for Trump's unique electoral skillset, and he has the potential to underperform massively.

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I think these gaffes are going to have a snowball effect.

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https://twitter.com/hamiltonnolan/status/1163942926050832385

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Twelve years ago Obama won the White House in a landslide running on hope (for a better future) and change (not W).

Today Biden runs on hope (to go back to a time before the country went mad) and change (not Trump).

This is dishonest. The hope and change that Obama was running on had more to do with ending an unpopular war and providing economic relief to vulnerable Americans at a time of economic turmoil. Biden's entire ethos is built around returning to a sense of "civility" or "sanity" (whatever that means), while giving short shrift to ways he can improve the lives of ordinary people. That includes people whose lives have suffered while Obama was in office who would hardly be returning to a markedly different state from the pre-Trump era. There is no evidence that Biden's message will be compelling enough to win him a landslide, but at the very least his message is not comparable to the one that gave Obama his decisive victory.

[Gracile]

It's time for Biden to do a lot of reassessing.  There are people already hedging their bets.

If I were Biden, I'd be bold and name my running mate right now.  I'd offer Amy Klobuchar second place on the ticket right now.  If she didn't take it, I'd offer it to someone from a key state; Sherrod Brown or Gary Peters would be good picks.  (Beto would have been a good pick until he put his foot in his mouth on guns.)  If Biden believes a minority would be necessary, I'd recommend he pick someone NOT in office right now with real gravitas.  (Ken Salazar and Jeh Johnson come to mind as excellent VP picks.)  This would be the sort of game-changer that would give Biden the kind of momentum he needs to finish off the field for all intents and purposes.

Biden needs to go for broke in this manner, or he'll endure death by a thousand cuts.

Picking a VP this early is a pretty desperate move that would probably do more harm than good - just look at what happened with Ted Cruz and his Fiorina stunt.

[Gracile]

Sounds like expectation setting more than anything else.

Even if this is true, Biden doesn't need IA or NH.

He doesn't need IA/NH per se, but early losses there would put his path to the nomination in serious doubt given how national primaries are built heavily on momentum. Not to mention it would ruin his narrative of being the most "electable" candidate if he can't actually win elections.

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https://twitter.com/JTHVerhovek/status/1179880760515403776

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https://twitter.com/samstein/status/1192181187466473472

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https://twitter.com/samstein/status/1192181187466473472

If he actually believes this, Joe Biden has to be he dumbest man in American politics.

It baffles me that someone who was VP during an egregious period of Republican obstructionism could be so naive about the behavior of his "colleagues" on the other side of the aisle.