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  2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread  (Read 170089 times)
Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,061


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #50 on: July 12, 2019, 10:31:08 AM »
And another one -

IA-03: NRCC internal shows Cindy Axne trailing a "named Republican" (probably David Young) by 6 points



https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/680079/nrcc-poll-axne-trails-gop-opponent-by-6
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,061


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #51 on: July 14, 2019, 08:03:05 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on July 14, 2019, 07:43:24 PM
Some Republican numbers from Texas:

TX-06: Wright $72,345
TX-08: Brady $650,257
TX-10: McCaul $646,095
TX-22: Olson $377,529

It looks like Olson got outraised by Kulkarni who brought in $420,000 in Q2.

Also, it's baffling that TX-22 isn't getting more attention. I would argue that this seat is one of the more likelier TX pickups based purely on its rapidly changing demographics. Kulkarni has also made reaching out to the district's diverse ethnic communities and registering new voters as a big part of his strategy this time around. It could pay off in the end.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,061


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #52 on: July 15, 2019, 01:49:46 PM »
Quote from: Oryxslayer on July 15, 2019, 01:20:52 PM


Embarrassing. I wonder if these numbers will spur Jeanne Ives or another more conservative Republican to jump in.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,061


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #53 on: July 15, 2019, 02:01:10 PM »
Quote from: #Kavanaugh For Prison on July 15, 2019, 01:56:15 PM
Quote from: gracile on July 15, 2019, 01:49:46 PM
Quote from: Oryxslayer on July 15, 2019, 01:20:52 PM


Embarrassing. I wonder if these numbers will spur Jeanne Ives or another more conservative Republican to jump in.

Sanguinetti is a more conservative Republican. She was actually much more right wing than Rauner.

I meant someone more in the Trumpist mold. Sanguinetti is a different kind of conservative.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,061


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #54 on: July 16, 2019, 11:07:11 AM »
Q2 incumbent fundraising numbers (minus Duncan Hunter who has not yet disclosed) and challenger fundraising numbers for districts targeted by the DCCC and NRCC:
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,061


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #55 on: July 17, 2019, 11:16:08 PM »
CA-21: Former Rep. David Valadao (R) has filed to run against Rep. TJ Cox (D)
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,061


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #56 on: July 20, 2019, 09:15:56 AM »
Quote from: Wesley Troopner on July 20, 2019, 04:35:35 AM
Sebelius staffer Abbie Hodgson is IN for KS-02. Tough district but a strong candidate, and given Watkins is a disaster, I think it's worth keeping an eye on her. Likely R.

Safe R, really. If Paul Davis couldn't win this district in a D wave, I'm doubtful another Dem could in a more Republican year (at least in this district).
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,061


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #57 on: July 20, 2019, 12:49:40 PM »
Quote from: Lou Barletta's Teeth on July 20, 2019, 11:56:02 AM
Quote from: gracile on July 20, 2019, 09:15:56 AM
Quote from: Wesley Troopner on July 20, 2019, 04:35:35 AM
Sebelius staffer Abbie Hodgson is IN for KS-02. Tough district but a strong candidate, and given Watkins is a disaster, I think it's worth keeping an eye on her. Likely R.

Safe R, really. If Paul Davis couldn't win this district in a D wave, I'm doubtful another Dem could in a more Republican year (at least in this district).

Not that it really matters, but did Kelly carry the district?

She did, but again using gubernatorial results to predict a congressional race is comparing apples to oranges.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,061


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #58 on: July 20, 2019, 01:52:38 PM »
Quote from: Lfromnj stands with Sanchez. on July 20, 2019, 01:34:15 PM
Quote from: gracile on July 20, 2019, 12:49:40 PM
Quote from: Lou Barletta's Teeth on July 20, 2019, 11:56:02 AM
Quote from: gracile on July 20, 2019, 09:15:56 AM
Quote from: Wesley Troopner on July 20, 2019, 04:35:35 AM
Sebelius staffer Abbie Hodgson is IN for KS-02. Tough district but a strong candidate, and given Watkins is a disaster, I think it's worth keeping an eye on her. Likely R.

Safe R, really. If Paul Davis couldn't win this district in a D wave, I'm doubtful another Dem could in a more Republican year (at least in this district).

Not that it really matters, but did Kelly carry the district?

She did, but again using gubernatorial results to predict a congressional race is comparing apples to oranges.

Actually Kansas and  Oklahoma gubernatorials were pretty closely tied to the congressional races. The D candidates generally fell 10 points behind. This is basically why Yoder lost by so much in only a Clinton +1 district.

I meant in the sense that the Democratic congressional candidate will not overperform the partisan lean of the district by a significant enough margin to win (e.g. they are not going to come close to Kelly's margin in the district).
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,061


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #59 on: July 24, 2019, 10:33:05 AM »
FL-26 is Safe D.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,061


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #60 on: July 24, 2019, 03:52:43 PM »
Quote from: Polorized KY voter for Bevin on July 24, 2019, 03:47:48 PM
Quote from: Duke of York on July 24, 2019, 03:42:43 PM
Quote from: IceSpear on July 24, 2019, 10:38:52 AM
Quote from: Oryxslayer on July 22, 2019, 12:19:17 PM
Quote from: Lfromnj stands with Sanchez. on July 22, 2019, 11:40:35 AM
Quote from: InheritTheWind on July 22, 2019, 11:38:11 AM


Could be nothing, could be something

Democrats be like Plz  be Wexton so the GOP can waste another 10 million.

Speaking of Wexton, the GOP got a decent candidate up for the fight with Wexton. Too bad this seat is both moving to the left at the speed of light, and guaranteed to lose red areas like Fredrick and Warren in 2020 redistricting (Fair redistricting creates a third NOVA Dem seat in Fairfax+Loudoun, Dem Redistricting might get wirder but still ends up with a 60/40 clinton seat at minimun).



So if the GOP wants to sink another 10 mil, its on them.

Wexton can lose if the GOP calls her a socialist enough times.
Trump would have to winning by a landslide for Wexton to lose
Or Wexton has a major scandal

Scandals don't seem to matter much these days (see Steve King, Duncan Hunter, Bob Menendez, etc. still having political careers), so I don't see why one would sink Wexton. If that were to occur, she would probably be pressured to stand down.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,061


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #61 on: July 29, 2019, 10:39:52 AM »
Another House recruit: Sara Hart Weir (R) officially in against Rep. Sharice Davids (D) in KS-03
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,061


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #62 on: July 29, 2019, 06:22:03 PM »
Quote from: Young Conservative on July 29, 2019, 04:35:54 PM
Quote from: Politician999 on July 29, 2019, 03:01:49 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on July 29, 2019, 02:59:47 PM

Only 2 of them hadn't raised double their R opponent: Cisneros (CA-39) and Horn (OK-5).
Isn't this at least somewhat misleading? Challengers haven't been in the race as long as their incumbents.

It’s still a lot of money on the D side, especially in the 2nd quarter of an off-year. I cant find exact figures rn but most of these hauls are more than what R incumbents were bringing in in Q2 of 2017. At the very least it shows that the Democrats’ small dollar infrastructure is still working in high gear.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,061


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #63 on: August 01, 2019, 10:50:45 AM »
Salazar is going to have a much tougher time in a presidential electorate.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,061


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #64 on: August 01, 2019, 03:28:48 PM »
It appears that Ms. Salazar accidentally filed to run in FL-26:
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,061


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #65 on: August 01, 2019, 05:38:29 PM »

Way too generous to Republicans. I would place this district firmly in the Safe D column.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,061


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #66 on: August 05, 2019, 02:12:16 PM »
I totally missed this, but it appears that Cook Political Report moved PA-10 to Tossup from Lean R:

https://cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings/

I think this might be a touch generous this early. DePasquale is certainly a top recruit, but the district still has a Republican lean that could help Perry.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,061


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #67 on: August 15, 2019, 10:53:17 AM »
The DCCC has added six more districts to it's House battlefield:

https://www.rollcall.com/news/campaigns/dccc-adds-six-more-trump-districts-to-its-2020-target-list

- Florida's 16th District (R-Buchanan)
- Iowa's 2nd District (OPEN, D-Loebsack)
- Michigan's 3rd District (I-Amash)
- Montana's At-Large District (OPEN?, R-Gianforte)
- Ohio's 12th District (R-Balderson)
- Virginia's 5th District (R-Riggleman)

Aside from IA-02 (which was likely added as it is now a competitive open seat), these districts are stretches for the Democrats.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,061


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #68 on: August 17, 2019, 12:10:47 PM »
Full RRH Elections rating changes:

Toward the GOP:
IA-01: Lean D -> Tossup
MN-07: Lean D -> Tossup
NV-03: Likely D - > Lean D
NJ-02: Likely D -> Lean D
NY-11: Lean D -> Tossup
OH-12: Lean R -> Likely R
OR-04: Safe D -> Likely D
PA-01: Tossup -> Lean R
TX-10: Lean R -> Likely R
TX-31: Lean R -> Likely R
VA-10: Safe D -> Likely D

Toward the Democrats:
CA-25: Lean D -> Likely D
IN-05: Likely R -> Lean R
MI-03: Likely R -> Three-way Tossup
TX-23: Lean R -> Lean D
VA-07: Tossup -> Lean D
WI-08: Safe R -> Likely R

Some of these changes are okay, but there are some pretty questionable calls in here.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,061


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #69 on: August 17, 2019, 12:18:10 PM »
Quote from: Lfromnj stands with Sanchez. on August 17, 2019, 12:16:17 PM
Also tx 24th is pretty clearly a tossup for now, unlike the other one's besides texas 23 it doesn't require a wave or a 3rd shift D trend to be winnable.

RRH seems pretty in denial about the state of Texas' House races, to put it mildly.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,061


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #70 on: August 20, 2019, 12:23:40 PM »
It's a shame that we have so few non-internal House polls.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,061


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #71 on: August 20, 2019, 03:59:49 PM »
Quote from: Politician stands with Sanchez on August 20, 2019, 03:44:02 PM
Quote from: IceSpear on August 20, 2019, 03:04:25 PM
Junk polls! Politician has assured me that 2016 and 2018 were two offs and that ancestrally Democratic WI-03 is safe D and that ancestrally Republican CA-45 will be hyper competitive!
>NRCC internal

Uh...

Quote from: Politician stands with Sanchez on July 01, 2019, 08:16:47 AM
NRCC internal: Malinowski TRAILS generic R, 44-42.

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/nrcc-poll-malinowski-in-close-re-election-race-remains-largely-unknown/

But Atlas told me this district was Safe D because of muh sububran trends and muh "swung towards Menendez"!
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,061


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #72 on: August 29, 2019, 09:16:46 AM »
CA-50: Former CA-49 Rep. Darrell Issa (R) is forming an exploratory committee-
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,061


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #73 on: August 31, 2019, 07:54:11 AM »
Quote from: Idaho is Safe D on August 31, 2019, 07:45:15 AM
https://insideelections.com/ratings/house/2020-house-ratings-august-30-2019

*TRIGGER WARNING FOR ATLAS TRENDTARDS*
CA-21: Lean D->Tilt D
IA-4: Likely R->Lean R

TX-22: Lean R->Tilt R
TX-24: Lean R->Tilt R

That CA-21 rating is a total joke.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,061


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #74 on: September 05, 2019, 09:13:36 AM »

It's the Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF), not the NRCC.
----
I wonder if this poll was released as a way to convince their donors that all the vulnerable Texas seats are not too far gone.
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