IA-SEN 2020: Ernst megathread

[Farmlands]

I honestly think Ernst will win based on polling and the fact that Reynolds was re-elected. Iowa is no WI or MI. Ernst appears to be almost as popular as Grassley despite being an extremist.

Even in Wisconsin, the extremist and polarising figure of Scott Walker almost won reelection, despite the more democratic lean of the state, compared to Iowa. This leaves little hope for an upset, specially with Theresa Greenfield or McGinty 2.0.

[Farmlands]

On May 5, Cal Woods dropped out of the Democratic primary and endorsed Michael Franken. Yesterday, the Des Moines Register did the same.

I know Greenfield has had better fundraising, yet can't help but wonder (when considering the potential for lots of small donations in addition to high-dollar fundraisers) how much of that is down to the early DSCC endorsement/promotion.

Yeah my feeling is Franken would probably be the stronger candidate in the GE.

With his profile and appearance, I don't doubt it. Greenfield strikes me as a weak nominee overall.

[Farmlands]

Is there a particular reason that Ernst has been cratering in the polls lately? I actually had this as a borderline Safe R race until recently.

My take, the race never was Safe R to begin with, because Ernst never had good approvals (3rd most unpopular senator) and recent polling is just showing what happens when that's the case. Gotta update my prediction map.