How will the WOW suburbs go in 2024?

[Frenchrepublican]

Snap back. They are still titanium R dowballot unlike the suburbs of Atlanta or Dallas

"Titanium R" doesn't mean as much when they've been swinging D for several cycles in a row.

Look at the results of WI-05, which covers much of Waukesha+Washington.
2014: R+39
2016: R+38
2018: R+24
2020: R+20

Doesn't look like down-ballot R's, even Sensenbrenner and Fitzgerald (who are about as generic R as you can find) are doing as well as you'd expect in a supposedly titanium R area.

The same counties on a Presidential level?

2012: R+35
2016: R+28
2020: R+23

On both a Presidential level and down-ballot level, they're trending left... It may not be as quick as the Atlanta burbs, but it's the same direction. Trump contributes to the swings, but whether Trump remains the main face of the GOP or not, these counties will continue swinging D.

WI-5 numbers are a bit misleading because it includes some parts of Milwaukee county, Waukesha at the congressional level was 65.5R vs 34.5D and Washinton was 71.5R vs 28.5D,.

[Frenchrepublican]

Snap back. They are still titanium R dowballot unlike the suburbs of Atlanta or Dallas

"Titanium R" doesn't mean as much when they've been swinging D for several cycles in a row.

Look at the results of WI-05, which covers much of Waukesha+Washington.
2014: R+39
2016: R+38
2018: R+24
2020: R+20

Doesn't look like down-ballot R's, even Sensenbrenner and Fitzgerald (who are about as generic R as you can find) are doing as well as you'd expect in a supposedly titanium R area.

The same counties on a Presidential level?

2012: R+35
2016: R+28
2020: R+23

On both a Presidential level and down-ballot level, they're trending left... It may not be as quick as the Atlanta burbs, but it's the same direction. Trump contributes to the swings, but whether Trump remains the main face of the GOP or not, these counties will continue swinging D.

WI-5 numbers are a bit misleading because it includes some parts of Milwaukee county, Waukesha at the congressional level was 65.5R vs 34.5D and Washinton was 71.5R vs 28.5D,.

Eh, the parts of Milwaukee county that WI-05 includes are suburban (Wauwatosa, West Allis, Greenfield) and their trends are generally similar to the rest of WOW (while they don't vote exactly the same). Doesn't disqualify them from being examined to evaluate WOW trends and suburban SE WI trends.

The Milwaukee parts of WI-5 were D+14 so no, you can't compare them to the WOW parts which are still much more conservative, also trends seem to be much stronger in the inner suburbs of than in the more exurban parts of the metro area.

[Frenchrepublican]

Frankly it's hard to say.

If you believe that the recent trends will continue once Biden enters the White House then WOW counties will likely continue to shift left, Waukesha would begin to give routinely +40% to democrats and Ozaukee would become a single digit county.

Now it's possible that the left wing trends in WOW counties will revert back a bit once Biden enter the White House, the idea behind this theory is that these trends were not due to a ideological or demographical shift like it is the case in some other suburban areas where democrats made strong gains, including in downballot races, over the past few years (Gwinnett, Cobb in GA, Chester in PA, Oakland in MI or Loudoun in VA) but more because of some antipathy toward Trump. This theory could explain why congressional democrats underperformed massively Joe Biden in WOW counties.