How many CDs has Biden won?

[Frenchrepublican]

I don't think there were that many Trump/dem CDs

There were a few. ME-02 and PA-08 immediately come to mind.

WI-3 (Biden lost it by 5) / maybe IA-2 (if Hart wins) / TX-15 / maybe TX-28 + TX-34 + AZ-1 + NY-19

[Frenchrepublican]

VA-1 is Trump 51/47

[Frenchrepublican]

Only Biden/Rep district that immediately comes to mind is Nebraska’s 2nd

A few districts in California too

Also TX-24 / PA-1 / probably NY-24 / CA-48

[Frenchrepublican]

Some MI numbers

https://twitter.com/im_sorry_wtf/status/1327679288317857792?s=20

Biden is doing well in MI-3 and is recovering a bit compared to Clinton in MI-9

[Frenchrepublican]

Biden carried MI-05 by 4%.

https://twitter.com/im_sorry_wtf/status/1327715755572432896

Barely the same than Clinton.

[Frenchrepublican]

Biden carried MI-05 by 4%.

https://twitter.com/im_sorry_wtf/status/1327715755572432896

Barely the same than Clinton. It's interesting that Macomb swung massively toward Biden while Genese didn't.

Macomb didn't massively swing towards Biden , 3 point swing still solid though.

Yeah, in fact.

I had the Senate numbers in mind when I wrote this.

[Frenchrepublican]

Right now, between confirmed flips and eyeballing results, I have the following districts as Trump-Biden:
AZ-01
GA-06
GA-07
IL-14
MI-11
MN-02
NE-02
NV-03
NH-01
NJ-05
NJ-11
NY-18
PA-17
TX-24
VA-02
VA-07

The only Clinton-Trump district I for sure know of is FL-26. What other districts flipped in both directions?

Some potential flips:

Clinton - Trump:
TX-23

Trump - Biden:
IA-1
NJ-3
TX-3

Re-elected Abby Finkenauer agrees.

I think I saw that all Iowa districts voted for Trump (IA-3 was actually the closest and was decided by 0.1%) and that TX-3 did as well.

Yeah, Trump won all four districts in Iowa again. TX-24 was the only Trump-Biden district in Texas, as Biden lost TX-02, TX-03, TX-10, TX-21 and TX-22 by around 1-2 points each. Not sure about the margins in TX-06, TX-25 and TX-31.

NJ-03 is possible, since Burlington and Ocean both swung about 5 points left. Though I think Trump probably won NJ-02.

How about Ohio? Did Biden flip any districts or did he only win the usual four?

According to ElectionMapsCo's map, Trump won OH-01, which is Steve Chabot's district. So I think it's safe to assume that Biden only won the four Democratic-held seats.

OH-13 would be interesting to know, Biden probably won it by less than 5

[Frenchrepublican]

Florida

[Frenchrepublican]

Florida

Interesting how Matt Gaetz' district had the biggest leftward swing.

Man, South Florida was just so brutal for Biden.

FL-4 had a bigger leftward swing.

[Frenchrepublican]

Maybe Rs will draw Soto out instead of Murphy

It would be smarter.

[Frenchrepublican]

Maybe Rs will draw Soto out instead of Murphy

It would be smarter.

9 being closer than 7 is pretty crazy.

The 7th has many woke whites.

[Frenchrepublican]

Maybe Rs will draw Soto out instead of Murphy

It would be smarter.

You overrate how easy it is to cut Orlando from 3 Dem to 2 Dem districts while Florida adds 2 districts overall. It's almost certainly not possible to do without a Jacksonville swing seat. Otherwise, all the surrounding territory which is also compensating for parts of Tampa jut gets too close for comfort.

You could do something like that

[Frenchrepublican]

Here is a list compiling the results in every CDs

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1uPaQL4Izv-7nbreQA7N5NVWAduulCtkyw8qZN7bpjCg/htmlview#gid=0

[Frenchrepublican]

TX is going to be interesting in redistricting because there are so many GOPers to protect, new seats to add. They may have honestly been better off had they lost a couple this year, they can pack Austin but its really hard to see them keeping the whole delegation, adding 2 of the new 3 seats and not losing 5-7 seats if there is a Dem wave in 2026 etc.

In addition they have to decide if TX-15, 28, 34 are worth going for. All 3 are meant as D vote sinks but hard to pack them even more. If they try to make them more R, then that is fewer voters to shore up 10, 21, 25, 31. It's one of the tougher gerrymander calls out there.

Given Nehls and Van Duyne are new and probably among their weaker incumbents, I wouldn't be shocked if they just gave them swing or even leaning blue seats that they might hold for one or two cycles before they flip rather than trying to shore up both for the decade.

That's wishful thinkings from your part, a more likely scenario is that CDs 7/32 will become D sink and that all the red seats will be shored up.

[Frenchrepublican]

Wow.  Can the democrats just gerrymander out that one Republican district in Maryland?  Now that SCOTUS says gerrymandering is perfectly ok.  The numbers would seem to work.

Oh yeah totally, they have supermajorities in both chambers. Only threat would be the now Republican/Conservative Maryland State Supreme Court.

Maryland is like Biden+32 but the Maryland Supreme Court is 4-3 R. Interesting country.

It's not the only example, Virginia Supreme Court has a conservative majority while Kansas and Oklahoma Supreme Courts have a liberal one.

[Frenchrepublican]

Results in MD:
https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/1336778339508510721

Unsurprisingly, Trump only won MD-01, based on the Eastern Shore, although he did significantly worse there compared to 2016.

Somehow, there were people who split their ticket between Biden and Andy Harris. I get the people who voted Biden and split for Fitzpatrick or Katko, but Andy Harris is a far-right nutjob who loves Orban and refused to denounce QAnon. Someone explain this.

Incumbency bonus + low information voters who vote for the dude they know (same reason why you have Trump/Cartwright voters).

[Frenchrepublican]

Results in MD:
https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/1336778339508510721
Unsurprisingly, Trump only won MD-01, based on the Eastern Shore, although he did significantly worse there compared to 2016.

Somehow, there were people who split their ticket between Biden and Andy Harris. I get the people who voted Biden and split for Fitzpatrick or Katko, but Andy Harris is a far-right nutjob who loves Orban and refused to denounce QAnon. Someone explain this.

Incumbency bonus + low information voters who vote for the dude they know (same reason why you have Trump/Cartwright voters).

No. Cartwright is a fake moderate who relies on his district's ancestrally D lean and underfunded/underwhelming R opponents to win, but he isn't really offensive and partisan unlike Andy Harris.

Cartwright is a member of the CPC so he is pretty partisan actually.

Anyway my point was that people who vote Biden/Harris or Trump/Cartwright are generally low info voters who vote for the incumbent simply because they have never heard of their underfunded opponent, you can say the same about people who voted Brown/Jordan in 2018 or people who voted Trump/Durbin, these persons are not very logical nor ideological.

[Frenchrepublican]

Cartwright is a member of the CPC so he is pretty partisan.

Anyway my point was that people who voted Biden/Harris or Trump/Cartwright are generally low info voters who vote for the incumbent simply because they have never heard of their opponent, you can say the same about people who voted Brown/Jordan in 2018 or people who voted Trump/Durbin, these persons are not very logical nor ideological.

I think that's more like a #populist   thing. DeFazio and Kildee are members of the CPC as well.

I completely agree with the second part of your post, but Biden/A. Harris is much weirder than Trump/Cartwright IMO.

It's weird only if you assume that every American voter is logical and rational, now if you understand that around one fifth of the US electorate has absolutely no ideology/true political opinions, and is basing his vote on personal habits/family traditions, incumbency, the look/name of the candidates it's not that weird.

[Frenchrepublican]

Also, I think it's crazy how different the CD map looked just a few years ago with Obama in 2012:



Crazy to see rural IA/WI/MN so blue and districts like GA-6, GA-7, and whole bunch of districts in TX, and other suburban districts safe R. Amazing how much these things can shift in just the course of 4 years.

Yet very few on this site entertain an election 12-16 years in the future consisting of different trends, coalitions or environments than what we currently see...

Now to be honest the was majority of the districts which were safe for the X party in 2012 are still safe X today, and most Romney 2012 voters backed Trump as most Obama 2012 voters voted Biden

[Frenchrepublican]

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=5n2f

Here's a map with district flips. Biden won 17 districts Trump carried in 2016, while Trump picked up 2 from Biden.

Biden won NY-19 ?