https://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/LAHP-Executive-Summary-Poll-2a.pdfEdwards (D) : 47%
Rispone (R) : 22%
Abraham (R) : 19%
A key aspect of the poll :’’Governor Edwards’ challenge is this: this poll uses a sample that is 29% black and 45% Democratic. With the conclusion of in person early voting, we know that the actual early vote of 374,190 (the second highest early vote EVER in Louisiana) was only 25% black/43% Democratic. If this demographic breakdown were to repeat itself on Election Day, the poll results as they stand today would actually show Governor Edwards (with “leaners” included) only leading Rispone 43-23%, with 21% for Abraham, 2% for Dantzler, 2% for Landrieu and Landry combined, and 9% undecided. Furthermore, it’s worth keeping in mind that in the 2015 primary, the demographic composition of the Election Day vote was only marginally more Democratic than the early vote.
And finally, who are the undecideds ? In the last poll, 29% of undecideds (“leaners” included) are African- American and 21% are Republican. Now only 14% are African-American while 55% are Republican. In other words, Governor Edwards has come close to hitting his ceiling, given his existing patterns of support.’’