Name a current Atlas trope that really, really, really won't age well

[Frenchrepublican]

1.’’Ohio is toss-up (or barely tilt R) because Sherrod Brown won it last year’’
2.’’Texas will be decided by a hair because mUh tReNds
3.’’Warren will defeat Trump in a landslide’’
4.’’Trump will lose the PV by double digits’’
5.’’VA is still a swing state because socialism will backfire in NOVA’’

[Frenchrepublican]

1.’’Ohio is toss-up (or barely tilt R) because Sherrod Brown won it last year’’
2.’’Texas will be decided by a hair because mUh tReNds
3.’’Warren will defeat Trump in a landslide’’
4.’’Trump will lose the PV by double digits’’
5.’’VA is still a swing state because socialism will backfire in NOVA’’

Funny. I don't see anyone saying those things except maybe number 5 by several of your fellow party members.

Well, number 2. is your main talking point.

[Frenchrepublican]

3.’’Warren will defeat Trump in a landslide’’
4.’’Trump will lose the PV by double digits’’

Are these really that prevalent, though? I think the conventional Atlas wisdom is that Trump is very likely to lose the PV, but not by double digits. And I haven't seen anyone claim Warren will win in a landslide, simply that she'd have a good chance of beating Trump. If anything, it seems "Warren is unelectable/would lose in a landslide" is a more common belief here than that she'd win in a landslide.

To be honest, most people on atlas are making reasonable predictions (just look at the aggregate predictions map) and try to be fair in their analysis, but some people who are pretty vocals are making the kind of predictions highlighted above (and they’re pretty agressive with anyone who disagree with them)

[Frenchrepublican]

1.’’Ohio is toss-up (or barely tilt R) because Sherrod Brown won it last year’’
2.’’Texas will be decided by a hair because mUh tReNds
3.’’Warren will defeat Trump in a landslide’’
4.’’Trump will lose the PV by double digits’’
5.’’VA is still a swing state because socialism will backfire in NOVA’’

Funny. I don't see anyone saying those things except maybe number 5 by several of your fellow party members.

Well, number 2. is your main talking point.

Post deleted by moderator

Aren’t you predicting that Trump will either lose TX or will win it by >1 point ?

[Frenchrepublican]

For all the Georgia skeptics...

https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1179022624665550848

Most of these people have been automatically registered and thus few of them are (will be) reliable voters.

[Frenchrepublican]

The biggest is Ohio being a competitive state. Also the stupid idea that AZ/TX/VA will swing/trend R if Dems nominate a SOCIALIST!!!

Oh, and throw in Virginia being a competitive state at all for that matter. And the people who inexplicably somehow still believe Democrats will have a rural surge because of muh soybeanz or something.

Yeah, the ones you are mentioning will probably look absurd after Election Day.

[Frenchrepublican]

- Michigan is more D than PA or WI. I think MI could be more pro Trump than Atlas thinks.

I live in Indiana and literally everyone I know hates Trump. Therefore IN is going to go way more Dem than Atlas thinks.

I lived in Indiana and literally everyone I know hates Trump or thinks Trump could do more if we let him. Believe in the silent majority of conservative intellectuals

Elizabeth Warren will win Hamilton County on a platform of free roundabouts for all Americans.

Half of Atlas is unironically convinced that Hamilton County is Lean D, so I'm not sure what you're mocking.

Seriously?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=334882.msg6966109#msg6966109

Well, more than half of atlas believe, according the poll you’re refering that Trump will win less than 55% of the vote in Hamilton County, which is quite crazy to be honest.

[Frenchrepublican]

How is it crazy to think that Hamilton could swing *a little bit* Democratic? If the Democrats win the PV by more, that wouldn't even necessarily translate to a Democratic trend in the county. If people were actually arguing that Hamilton would flip, then sure, that would be crazy, but I don't think anyone has come close to predicting that. Yeah, not every trend is guaranteed to continue to the same extent as in 2016, but almost no one is arguing that this will happen.

Because over the past century you won’t find even one election where Hamilton county voted to the left of Indiana, even in 2016 Hamilton county was a bit to the right of the state as whole.
So if Trump is really under 55% in Hamilton it would mean he is around 55/54% in Indiana as whole, which would translate into a landslide defeat nationwide (the kind of defeat where he loses GA and OH).

[Frenchrepublican]

- Michigan is more D than PA or WI. I think MI could be more pro Trump than Atlas thinks.

I live in Indiana and literally everyone I know hates Trump. Therefore IN is going to go way more Dem than Atlas thinks.

I lived in Indiana and literally everyone I know hates Trump or thinks Trump could do more if we let him. Believe in the silent majority of conservative intellectuals

Elizabeth Warren will win Hamilton County on a platform of free roundabouts for all Americans.

Half of Atlas is unironically convinced that Hamilton County is Lean D, so I'm not sure what you're mocking.

Seriously?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=334882.msg6966109#msg6966109

Well, more than half of atlas believe, according the poll you’re refering that Trump will win less than 55% of the vote in Hamilton County, which is quite crazy to be honest.

Trump won 56% in 2016. Why is a <2% swing "quite crazy?"

See my explanation above. Trump won Hamilton 56/36 in 16, I can see a 2 points swing in terms of margins (Trump wins Hamilton 58/40 for example) but a scenario where Trump loses 2 points in terms of raw numbers ; (and where he wins only 54% of the vote in Hamilton), would mean a landslide defeat for him.

[Frenchrepublican]

How is it crazy to think that Hamilton could swing *a little bit* Democratic? If the Democrats win the PV by more, that wouldn't even necessarily translate to a Democratic trend in the county. If people were actually arguing that Hamilton would flip, then sure, that would be crazy, but I don't think anyone has come close to predicting that. Yeah, not every trend is guaranteed to continue to the same extent as in 2016, but almost no one is arguing that this will happen.

Because over the past century you won’t find even one election where Hamilton county voted to the left of Indiana, even in 2016 Hamilton county was a bit to the right of the state as whole.
So if Trump is really under 55% in Hamilton it would mean he is around 55/54% in Indiana as whole, which would translate into a landslide defeat nationwide (the kind of defeat where he loses GA and OH).

You clearly have not studied Indiana.

20 years ago Indiana consisted of "Business Republicans" concentrated in the areas around Indianapolis, and "quasi-dixiecrats" in the rural south. Rural counties in the south have massively trended R, while the Indy area has massively trended D. The GOP base in Indiana is becoming more and more working class, while wealthy suburbs are going from overwhelmingly Republican to slightly Republican.

1996:



2016:



Having Hamilton County trend another 2 points to the left of the state is not at all unrealistic given the long-term trends in the state.

Sorry but I know a few things about Indiana politics (I even read something the Howeypolitics Blog)

I know all these trends, and yeah, I know that Hamilton county was once +70% R and I also know these days are not coming back. Now it’s very hard to imagine a scenario where Trump wins Hamilton let’s say 54/44 and wins Indiana 58/40, if Trump is winning Hamilton 54/44, he is winning Indiana 56/42 (at the best) and he is getting trounced 45/53 nationwide. Possible ? Yeah. Probable ? Unlikely

[Frenchrepublican]

How is it crazy to think that Hamilton could swing *a little bit* Democratic? If the Democrats win the PV by more, that wouldn't even necessarily translate to a Democratic trend in the county. If people were actually arguing that Hamilton would flip, then sure, that would be crazy, but I don't think anyone has come close to predicting that. Yeah, not every trend is guaranteed to continue to the same extent as in 2016, but almost no one is arguing that this will happen.

Because over the past century you won’t find even one election where Hamilton county voted to the left of Indiana, even in 2016 Hamilton county was a bit to the right of the state as whole.
So if Trump is really under 55% in Hamilton it would mean he is around 55/54% in Indiana as whole, which would translate into a landslide defeat nationwide (the kind of defeat where he loses GA and OH).

Just because Hamilton hasn't voted to the left of Indiana as a whole recently doesn't mean it won't next year. It's pretty significant that it went from voting leaps and bounds to the right of Indiana to pretty much right in line with the state. If Democrats win next year, does that mean that Vigo has to flip, since it's sided with the winner in every recent election?

Recently ? : the record stands over the past 100 years.

And despite mUh trends Hamilton was still to the right of the state in every statewide election in 2018

[Frenchrepublican]

Sorry but I know a few things about Indiana politics (I even read something the Howeypolitics Blog)

I know all these trends, and yeah, I know that Hamilton county was once +70% R and I also know these days are not coming back. Now it’s very hard to imagine a scenario where Trump wins Hamilton let’s say 54/44 and wins Indiana 58/40, if Trump is winning Hamilton 54/44, he is winning Indiana 56/42 (at the best) and he is getting trounced 45/53 nationwide. Possible ? Yeah. Probable ? Unlikely

This drifted off the topic of "half of Atlas says Hamilton County is lean D because trends." Why have the goalposts suddenly moved?

These numbers are muddied by the complete unknown of third party performance. If a Libertarian ticket does as well as it did in 2016, Trump will probably fail to break 55%, even while gaining ground in Indiana as a whole. If there is no alternative to Trump on the right, if this is a 1% Lib year, then Trump certainly will do better than 55%.

But since we're dealing with unknowns, the idea of Trump failing to break 55% in Hamilton County is not a crazy idea.

Yeah, sure if third parties collect a even greater share of the vote than in 2016 Trump winning Hamilton 54/36 for example (and thus being held under 55%) is probably but I doubt that third parties will do so well.