Hamilton County, Indiana (Carmel)

[Frenchrepublican]

Around 58%. The share of third parties will drop considerably so I expect trump to do better than in 2016.

Matchups :

Warren vs Trump : Trump wins 59/39
Sanders vs Trump : Trump wins 59/37
Biden vs Trump : Trump wins 57/41

[Frenchrepublican]

Probably wins by the same margin as Mike Braun (52/44), give or take 1-2 percentage points.

ROFL

Anyway, probably around 57% or just barely short of it due to the third party vote decreasing.

You clearly didn’t learn any lessons from 2018 or even the specials earlier this week

Yeah, yeah we know.... Collin county will flip and Hamilton county is toss-up because trends.

[Frenchrepublican]

Probably wins by the same margin as Mike Braun (52/44), give or take 1-2 percentage points.

ROFL

Anyway, probably around 57% or just barely short of it due to the third party vote decreasing.

You clearly didn’t learn any lessons from 2018 or even the specials earlier this week

it’s really stupid to extrapolate from special elections

[Frenchrepublican]

Probably wins by the same margin as Mike Braun (52/44), give or take 1-2 percentage points.

That would be a very encouraging result for the Democratic challenger. If Hamilton hasn't trended left compared to the state, it means Trump is only taking Indiana by 6-10 points, which means he has no chance to keep Ohio. If Hamilton has trended significantly left compared to the state, it probably means similar areas around the country are trending left, which is bad news for Trump in the Sunbelt.

Yeah, if Trump is winning only 52% in Hamilton county he is kaput. Donnelly did very well in 2018 in Hamilton because he was a centrist/pro-business democrat, besides he campaigned heavily in this area, I doubt that the 2020 democratic presidential candidate will be a very good fit for Hamilton

[Frenchrepublican]

Probably wins by the same margin as Mike Braun (52/44), give or take 1-2 percentage points.

ROFL

Anyway, probably around 57% or just barely short of it due to the third party vote decreasing.

You clearly didn’t learn any lessons from 2018 or even the specials earlier this week

Yeah, yeah we know.... Collin county will flip and Hamilton county is toss-up because trends.

You guys are quite the disingenuous straw men creators aren’t ya. Nowhere have I said any of that. Merely that rural voters aren’t going to come running back to Democrats in significant numbers anytime soon, and that the Republican erosion in suburbia is still happening. No need to get so butt hurt by those facts

I agree that wealthy suburbs will continue to trend D over the years, simply because they have done so in every elections since 1988 (with the exception of 2012), but you, you’re greatly overestimating how fast these trends are talking place.
Hamilton trended heavily D between 2012 and 2016 (15 points to the left) but it’s pretty unlikely that it will trend 15 points D again in 2020 simply because it’s uncommon for an area to trend heavily toward the same party two elections in a row.

[Frenchrepublican]

Probably wins by the same margin as Mike Braun (52/44), give or take 1-2 percentage points.

ROFL

Anyway, probably around 57% or just barely short of it due to the third party vote decreasing.

You clearly didn’t learn any lessons from 2018 or even the specials earlier this week

Yeah, yeah we know.... Collin county will flip and Hamilton county is toss-up because trends.

You guys are quite the disingenuous straw men creators aren’t ya. Nowhere have I said any of that. Merely that rural voters aren’t going to come running back to Democrats in significant numbers anytime soon, and that the Republican erosion in suburbia is still happening. No need to get so butt hurt by those facts

I agree that wealthy suburbs will continue to trend D over the years, simply because they have done so in every elections since 1988 (with the exception of 2012), but you, you’re greatly overestimating how fast these trends are talking place.

Wealthy and diversifying is what I would say. And how am I greatly overestimating this when we’ve seen places like Orange County, Gwinnett County, Cobb County, Williamson County, Maricopa County, Travis County, Bexar County, Dallas County, Collin County, Tarrant County and Harris County all swing 20+ points or more in the past seven years? That’s pretty fast by most standards. These places aren’t going back to the GOP fold (the same holds true for rural areas and Democrats as we’ve seen) and a lot of people on this website can’t seem to come to grips with that reality. Namely Mr. computer and mr. Politician

On the long term these areas are trending heavily D, yeah, but an area which already trended heavily D between 2012 and 2016 is unlikely to trend again heavily toward democrats between 2016 and 2020, unless some very big demographic changes take place between 2016 and 2020 (Hays County for example)

[Frenchrepublican]

See what I added t my comment above. There’s actually a ton of precedent for that almost anywhere you look.

There are some examples, yeah, but they’re are uncommon. Example ; some places have trended R in every election since 1996 (Appalachia) but it has been a gradual trend. The only areas which are trending hard in the same direction every election are those which are experiencing big demographic changes, for example Clayton county which is near Atlanta,

[Frenchrepublican]

See what I added t my comment above. There’s actually a ton of precedent for that almost anywhere you look.

There are some examples, yeah, but they’re are uncommon. Example ; some places have trended R in every election since 1996 (Appalachia) but it has been a gradual trend. The only areas which are trending hard in the same direction every election are those which are experiencing big demographic changes, for example Clayton county which is near Atlanta,

TBF, I think some of those suburban counties such as the TX suburbs are expericing massive demographic changes. But yeah, for rural counties they usually didn't consistently trend red pre-2016 and especially in 2008 many of them trended blue.

Yeah, Williamson or Hays could trend D a lot again in 2020, but Hamilton county on the other hand is not experiencing as much demographic changes than these two counties.

[Frenchrepublican]

Hamilton trended heavily D between 2012 and 2016 (15 points to the left) but it’s pretty unlikely that it will trend 15 points D again in 2020 simply because it’s uncommon for an area to trend heavily toward the same party two elections in a row.

Lmao Hamilton literally did just that in 2016 and 2018.

What are you smoking ?

2016 PRES :
Hamilton county : R+19.32
Statewide : R+19.01

2018 SEN :
Hamilton county : R+7.96
Statewide : R+6.92

[Frenchrepublican]

^Don’t be deliberately obtuse. Obviously the 2018 Trend map is based on the 2012-2018 swing and not the 2016-2018 swing, and rightly so because Senate races in these red states aren’t comparable at all to presidential elections.

Hamilton trended something like 19 points to the left between 2012 and 2018.

Hamilton trended heavily D between 2012 and 2016 (15 points to the left) but it’s pretty unlikely that it will trend 15 points D again in 2020 simply because it’s uncommon for an area to trend heavily toward the same party two elections in a row.

Lmao Hamilton literally did just that in 2016 and 2018.

You're the one who compared 2016 and 2018

[Frenchrepublican]

Apparently a majority of people believe that Trump will win less than 55% in Hamilton County. As a reminder here are the performances of different republican candidates in 2018.

State Treasurer :
R : 62.46%

Secretary of State :
R : 59.41%

State Auditor :
R : 60.28%

House of Representatives :
R : 61.10%

Senate :
R : 52.38%


I would also highlight the fact that in every of these races the republican candidate did better in Hamilton county than statewide (or districtwide for the US House)

[Frenchrepublican]

^I did not compare 2016 and 2018, I said that it trended strongly Democratic in 2016 and in 2018, which is an accurate statement. I posted the trend maps above.

OK, but if comparing 2012 IN SEN with 2018 IN SEN will obviously show a big D trend in Hamilton county, it doesn't mean anything for 2020.
Trends at the Senate level between 2012 and 2018 are linked to what happened between 2012 and 2016 at Presidential level, so it's not indicative of what will happen between 2016 and 2020 at the Presidential level.

[Frenchrepublican]

Apparently a majority of people believe that Trump will win less than 55% in Hamilton County. As a reminder here are the performances of different republican candidates in 2018.

State Treasurer :
R : 62.46%

Secretary of State :
R : 59.41%

State Auditor :
R : 60.28%

House of Representatives :
R : 61.10%

Senate :
R : 52.38%


I would also highlight the fact that in every of these races the republican candidate did better in Hamilton county than statewide (or districtwide for the US House)

Most people don't pay attention to lower-level row offices.  Plus, the candidates that did run in those races weren't particularly strong.

It's not really the question. These numbers show that Hamilton County is still a very conservative county and that contrary to a common idea on this forum it won't vote (significantly) more D than the state as whole. If Trump is really winning Hamilton county with ''only'' 53% of the vote then it's very unlikely that he is winning more than 54% in the state as whole and in a such scenario he would be destroyed at the national level. So yeah, Trump will likely win 57% to 59% of the vote in Hamilton County.


Now I agree with you on the fact that few people are paying attention to lower lever row-offices and that it's entirely possible that some people who don't like Trump are still voting R downballot, but the idea that ''Trump can't win more 52% in Hamilton because Braun won 52%'' is dumb as well, Braun is a good candidate but he was a running against a moderate, incumbent Senator, during a very D year, By highligting these numbers I just wanted to point the fact that 52% is more the R floor in this county that the ceilling.

[Frenchrepublican]

Apparently a majority of people believe that Trump will win less than 55% in Hamilton County. As a reminder here are the performances of different republican candidates in 2018.

State Treasurer :
R : 62.46%

Secretary of State :
R : 59.41%

State Auditor :
R : 60.28%

House of Representatives :
R : 61.10%

Senate :
R : 52.38%


I would also highlight the fact that in every of these races the republican candidate did better in Hamilton county than statewide (or districtwide for the US House)

Most people don't pay attention to lower-level row offices.  Plus, the candidates that did run in those races weren't particularly strong.

It's not really the question. These numbers show that Hamilton County is still a very conservative county and that contrary to a common idea on this forum it won't vote (significantly) more D than the state as whole. If Trump is really winning Hamilton county with ''only'' 53% of the vote then it's very unlikely that he is winning more than 54% in the state as whole and in a such scenario he would be destroyed at the national level. So yeah, Trump will likely win 57% to 59% of the vote in Hamilton County.


Now I agree with you on the fact that few people are paying attention to lower lever row-offices and that it's entirely possible that some people who don't like Trump are still voting R downballot, but the idea that ''Trump can't win more 52% in Hamilton because Braun won 52%'' is dumb as well, Braun is a good candidate but he was a running against a moderate, incumbent Senator, during a very D year, By highligting these numbers I just wanted to point the fact that 52% is more the R floor in this county that the ceilling.

This kind of thinking is due to 2 kinda lazy assumptions that many people are confident in:

1. The current trend of a location will continue and at the same velocity
2. 2018 midterms were a good indicator of what 2020 will be like

With an incumbent, we're not likely to see nearly as strong of trends as we did with the open election, this was true in 2004 and 2012 and it's very likely be true in 2020 as well. We went from Romney to Trump which is pretty significant. Going from Trump to Trump is not.

I agree, 2016 was already to some extent a realignment election, so it’s very unlikely that trend which occurred between 2012 and 2016 will be reproduced with the same intensity between 2016 and 2020

[Frenchrepublican]

I believe Trump will win by single digits this time around. It’s moving leftward very fast.

In a such case he is losing the election in a landslide (11 to 12 points loss probably).