MN-07: Fischbach in

[Frenchrepublican]

Great new, it means that republicans have finally decided to target him. I hope he will be gone after next year.

[Frenchrepublican]

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2019/09/03/fischbach-says-she-will-back-trump-on-trade-other-issues

You guys sure you wanna rate this as Safe Republican?

I'm sure the district that Trump won by 30 is going to swing hard left because of muh trade issues

Last year some democrats on Twitter thought that Heitkamp would be reelected because of the ''Trade War''.

[Frenchrepublican]

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2019/09/03/fischbach-says-she-will-back-trump-on-trade-other-issues

You guys sure you wanna rate this as Safe Republican?

I'm sure the district that Trump won by 30 is going to swing hard left because of muh trade issues

Okay, but i'd be hard pressed to rate this as Safe R when it's an agricultural district and the Republican wants to continue the current trade policies that are hurting farmers. Toss Up is a fair rating. Also Fischbach's planning on abiding by the party endorsement, and those delegates might go with Hughes. They always endorse the furthest right candidate at the endorsing conventions.

A few months ago the Farm Pulse Journal polled 2000 farmers ; Trump had a 78% approval rate.

[Frenchrepublican]

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2019/09/03/fischbach-says-she-will-back-trump-on-trade-other-issues

You guys sure you wanna rate this as Safe Republican?

I'm sure the district that Trump won by 30 is going to swing hard left because of muh trade issues

Last year some democrats on Twitter thought that Heitkamp would be reelected because of the ''Trade War''.

Yeah, some people on this website just have a hard time accepting the fact that hordes of voters vote against their interests and will continue to do so. Look no further than Appalachia or specifically Kentucky.

I don't really see why rural voters would have any interest to vote for a party who despise them and who mock their values.

[Frenchrepublican]

https://kfgo.com/podcasts/news-views-with-joel-heitkamp/117905/michelle-fischbach-on-trump-trade-war-and-what-the-breakout-is-on-mfp-payments-i-dont-know-off-the-t/?fbclid=IwAR1uKAHgYyRqab_BejJsaTh9ucwiSnJyibFeSRnpA0yOBVJSD4OOQK695yg

Are y'all really sure that this race is Safe Republican when the leading GOP candidate doesn't even know what the price of soy is?

This guy is a democratic troll

[Frenchrepublican]

https://kfgo.com/podcasts/news-views-with-joel-heitkamp/117905/michelle-fischbach-on-trump-trade-war-and-what-the-breakout-is-on-mfp-payments-i-dont-know-off-the-t/?fbclid=IwAR1uKAHgYyRqab_BejJsaTh9ucwiSnJyibFeSRnpA0yOBVJSD4OOQK695yg

Are y'all really sure that this race is Safe Republican when the leading GOP candidate doesn't even know what the price of soy is?

Yep, pretty bloody sure

So, an agricultural district with a 14 term incumbent Dem who's also the chair of the ag committee is Safe Republican, not even Lean Republican, when the Republican doesn't know the answer to one of the most basic questions related to agriculture?

That's quite the bold take

I have two questions:

1) Does Trump know any of the basic questions related to agriculture?
2) How do you think Trump will do in this district in 2020?

1) Not much, but he'll be running against Biden, Harris, Warren or Bernie, all of whom Collin Peterson is a much better candidate than.
2) He'll win it, but not by 30 points. He'll probably get it by 20-25 points or so. And I can see Peterson doing 20-25 points better than the Presidential nominee.

Again, I am not disputing a Lean R rating. I'm disputing a Safe Republican rating. It's honestly madness that anyone would say that the district is Safe, given its history of voting in Peterson.

Trump won it 61/31 in 2016 and I doubt that this district will swing 10 points to the left, there are very few white college suburban voters, you don't have a lot of minorities voters, the district swung hard to the right when compared to 2014 in both the MN SEN race and the MN GOV race. Trump will likely win it 63 or 64% of the vote in MN-7.

[Frenchrepublican]

The NRCC now has to focus on some offense now and they could be stupid but even the pundits are catching on and calling it a tossup. Then again they still want Texas 7th more than this.

I said once before, the NRCC is always fighting the last war, with the map from three cycles ago.

I used the example of how they sank millions in the 1980's into going after seats in NYC and the Bay Area, while leaving rural seats completely uncontested that would cost only a few thousand to go after.

The NRCC and the NRSC are a bit like the french military staff of the late 1930's.

[Frenchrepublican]

Anyway this district is neither Safe R nor Likely/Lean D (I'm looking at you Charlie Cook), but it's clear that Peterson is in for a difficult fight ahead, the fact that Fischach is running means that Republicans have now decided to target him (contrary to 2016 and 2018) and it's clear that MN-7 is thus the most likely seat to flip next year. As of now I would rate it Lean R.

[Frenchrepublican]

The NRCC now has to focus on some offense now and they could be stupid but even the pundits are catching on and calling it a tossup. Then again they still want Texas 7th more than this.

I said once before, the NRCC is always fighting the last war, with the map from three cycles ago.

I used the example of how they sank millions in the 1980's into going after seats in NYC and the Bay Area, while leaving rural seats completely uncontested that would cost only a few thousand to go after.

The NRCC and the NRSC are a bit like the french military staff of the late 1930's.

LOL

At least we now know the constant which even the most dramatic realignments just can’t change: Republican incompetence.

Unfortunately for American conservatism

[Frenchrepublican]

The NRCC now has to focus on some offense now and they could be stupid but even the pundits are catching on and calling it a tossup. Then again they still want Texas 7th more than this.

I said once before, the NRCC is always fighting the last war, with the map from three cycles ago.

I used the example of how they sank millions in the 1980's into going after seats in NYC and the Bay Area, while leaving rural seats completely uncontested that would cost only a few thousand to go after.

The NRCC and the NRSC are a bit like the french military staff of the late 1930's.

Yeah high levels ruining grassroot activism like De Gaulle who wrote the combined arms tactics way before anyone else.

To be honest, De Gaulle was not the only one to understand the importance of tanks, Guderian was also a very active proponent of this theory.

[Frenchrepublican]

^I’m not going to comment on the rest of this hackish comment, but in what universe is Collin Peterson's voting record best described as "center-right"?

Yeah, Peterson is hardly a center right dude, the guy is very close to Nancy Pelosi and a few months ago he voted to increase the minimum wage by 100% (which would destroy small businesses in his low cost of living district).

[Frenchrepublican]

I think that Bishop's special election win in North Carolina tonight, while not predictive of this race, nevertheless shows that the urban-rural divide is continuing to worsen. And this does not bode well for Peterson. I'm more sure at this point that polarization will knock him off in 2020.

Peterson and Brindisi are probably the underdog in their respective race. Too many rural voters for them to survive.

[Frenchrepublican]

^I’m not going to comment on the rest of this hackish comment, but in what universe is Collin Peterson's voting record best described as "center-right"?

Yeah, Peterson is hardly a center right dude, the guy is very close to Nancy Pelosi and a few months ago he voted to increase the minimum wage by 100% (which would destroy small businesses in his low cost of living district).

So raising the minimum wage is unpopular in MN-7? No? So it's not so much that Peterson is voting in opposition to his constituents' wishes, just in opposition to your ideological priors. Which, who gives a sh!+?

I doubt that a $15 dollars minimum wage is popular in a such conservative district.
Anyway, the point is that Peterson is not ’’center right’’ by any standard.

[Frenchrepublican]

^I’m not going to comment on the rest of this hackish comment, but in what universe is Collin Peterson's voting record best described as "center-right"?

Yeah, Peterson is hardly a center right dude, the guy is very close to Nancy Pelosi and a few months ago he voted to increase the minimum wage by 100% (which would destroy small businesses in his low cost of living district).

So raising the minimum wage is unpopular in MN-7? No? So it's not so much that Peterson is voting in opposition to his constituents' wishes, just in opposition to your ideological priors. Which, who gives a sh!+?

I doubt that a $15 dollars minimum wage is popular in a such conservative district.
Anyway, the point is that Peterson is not ’’center right’’ by any standard.

I bet at least a plurality currently supports a $15/hr. minimum wage in MN-7. But you folks are really doing a sh***y job of defending the notion that an opponent of abortion, gay marriage, gun control, and climate change legislation in 2019 isn't "center-right." If the problem is that Peterson hasn't fellated Trump enough, and the voters of MN-7 need to slit their own economic throats in response, you should just come out and say it. It's embarrassing, and yeah, it makes them seem like contemptible morons — especially when they invariably come begging for a bailout — but honesty is preferred.

So much anger !! You should seek help.

[Frenchrepublican]

^I’m not going to comment on the rest of this hackish comment, but in what universe is Collin Peterson's voting record best described as "center-right"?

Yeah, Peterson is hardly a center right dude, the guy is very close to Nancy Pelosi and a few months ago he voted to increase the minimum wage by 100% (which would destroy small businesses in his low cost of living district).

So raising the minimum wage is unpopular in MN-7? No? So it's not so much that Peterson is voting in opposition to his constituents' wishes, just in opposition to your ideological priors. Which, who gives a sh!+?

I doubt that a $15 dollars minimum wage is popular in a such conservative district.
Anyway, the point is that Peterson is not ’’center right’’ by any standard.

Terrible take. Minimum wage increases are popular in conservative areas throughout the country-they've passed by large margins in ballot initiatives even in states like Arkansas. You seem to think that just because's an area is Republican leaning, its voters adhere to the Chicago School of Economics.

Yeah, increasing the minimum wage to $11 dollars over a few years is a winning issue, but increasing the minimum wage by 100% to $15 (while the inflation is quite low) is not popular in conservative areas. And it would be very dumb from a economic perspective considering that the cost of living in rural Minnesota is not very high.

[Frenchrepublican]

^I’m not going to comment on the rest of this hackish comment, but in what universe is Collin Peterson's voting record best described as "center-right"?

Yeah, Peterson is hardly a center right dude, the guy is very close to Nancy Pelosi and a few months ago he voted to increase the minimum wage by 100% (which would destroy small businesses in his low cost of living district).

So raising the minimum wage is unpopular in MN-7? No? So it's not so much that Peterson is voting in opposition to his constituents' wishes, just in opposition to your ideological priors. Which, who gives a sh!+?

I doubt that a $15 dollars minimum wage is popular in a such conservative district.
Anyway, the point is that Peterson is not ’’center right’’ by any standard.

Terrible take. Minimum wage increases are popular in conservative areas throughout the country-they've passed by large margins in ballot initiatives even in states like Arkansas. You seem to think that just because's an area is Republican leaning, its voters adhere to the Chicago School of Economics.

Yeah, increasing the minimum wage to $11 dollars over a few years is a winning issue, but increasing the minimum wage by 100% to $15

Liar — the minimum wage is already ~$10/hr in MN. And it's indexed to inflation, so it's not even a 50% increase we're talking about. It's overwhelmingly popular, apart from the Randian fringe. deleted

Peterson is a congressman which means he is voting on federal bills, as of now the federal minimum wage is $ 7.5/hour, so increasing it to $15 is a 100% increase. And no, increasing the minimum wage to $15 is not popular in this district, the issue is polling at around 55% nationwide (which shows how stupid many voters are), so it means that in areas which are fairly conservative like this district a such position is a losing one.