2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

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Just dropping in to say that re: Georgia, Fulton County will report "full results" between midnight and 3am EST:

https://twitter.com/TalKopan/status/1324179050156490754

Is the needle still on?

They were turned off at 6am EST this morning.

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Just a reminder, Georgia's counting will not be finished once the remaining accepted absentees are processed today. There are three groups of ballots that still have yet to be counted:

- PROVISIONALS: Provisional ballots are for those voters who, for some reason, could not vote a regular ballot at the polling place. These could include voters whose eligibility to vote could not be proven, those who voted in a precinct that was kept open late, or those who voted in their county of residence but at a different precinct from their assigned one, for example. 28 of those votes were counted as of 10am this morning. Voters who cast a provisional ballot have until tomorrow afternoon to sort those issues out with their county's elections registrar.

For reference, there were 12,091 provisional votes counted in the 2018 governor's race; Abrams won 71% of them. In the 2016 election, there were about 7,600 provisionals counted; Clinton won 63% of them. I don't know just how many provisionals will be counted (Cobb County says they have 882 yet to be counted,) but I think there will be a few thousand. This is a weird year, but if history holds, these ballots will favor Biden.

- OVERSEAS: UOCAVA ballots from overseas and military voters had to be postmarked by 7pm on Election Day, but could arrive as late as Friday I believe. I don't expect there to be many of these.

- "CURED" BALLOTS: These are absentee ballots that were rejected because of signature mismatches and such. For example, Cobb County says that one of the batches of ballots they'll count tomorrow include "any ballots with missing or mismatched signatures cured by affidavit." There will only be a few hundred of these at most, maybe 1,000, statewide, but based on the demographic data of voters who cast these ballots, I expect these to lean towards Biden.

So if Biden takes the lead in Georgia today, don't be surprised if his lead continues to increase a bit more through the weekend and into next week. Even if he falls 200 or so votes short today, don't be surprised if that changes over the next few days.

Remember, the election is not over until every county has certified their results, and that process doesn't begin for another few days.

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It appears the Chatham County, GA lawsuit brought by Trump campaign was dismissed:

https://twitter.com/ZoeTillman/status/1324385363494883329

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We're talking about January runoffs in Georgia (Perdue is now at 49.98%, so a double Senate runoff is virtually certain), but it's not out of the question there could be a December dress rehearsal:

Public Service Commission chair Bubba McDonald (R) is sitting at 50.15%. If he falls below 50%, there will be a runoff in early December. We'll see where that race stands after certification of the results.

Speaking of certification, some Georgia counties are now reaching the finish line: Glascock, Turner, and Bacon counties have certified their results, so the November election is over (barring a recount) in those three counties. 156 counties to go.

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https://twitter.com/BrendanKeefe/status/1324431132386099203

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Georgia update:

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1324443575489232897

Watching the SoS press conference: there are 8,899 UOCAVA (overseas and military ballots) issued, but the question is how many of them are postmarked and how many will arrive by tomorrow afternoon, the deadline. We don't know.

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Georgia update:

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1324443575489232897

Watching the SoS press conference: there are 8,899 UOCAVA (overseas and military ballots) issued, but the question is how many of them are postmarked and how many will arrive by tomorrow afternoon, the deadline. We don't know.

Don't military ballots get counted regardless of the deadline?

No. By law, UOCAVA ballots must be postmarked by 7pm on election day and arrive at county election offices within three days of the close of polls (that's Friday).

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can someone do an idiots guide to the remaining Georgia counties?

Of the counties that have absentee ballots remaining, all but Forsyth, Harris, Floyd, Laurens, and Taylor are very blue.

However, Biden is winning absentee votes or coming very close even in red, red, red counties like Forsyth and Bryan:

https://twitter.com/gtryan/status/1324410537200013314

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Georgia update:

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1324443575489232897

Watching the SoS press conference: there are 8,899 UOCAVA (overseas and military ballots) issued, but the question is how many of them are postmarked and how many will arrive by tomorrow afternoon, the deadline. We don't know.

Don't military ballots get counted regardless of the deadline?

No. By law, UOCAVA ballots must be postmarked  by 7pm on election day and arrive at county election offices within three days of the close of polls (that's Friday).

I thought a law was passed by Congress which meant that nationwide, UOCAVA ballots had more time to come in.

Yes, but that didn't affect postmark deadlines. This is a screencap from the Federal Voting Absentee Program website (FVAP.gov):

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Regarding Georgia, looks like we will get more Chatham County (Savannah) numbers tonight:

https://twitter.com/ejreports/status/1324490984063946754