Georgia suburbanites sticking with Trump (user search)
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  Georgia suburbanites sticking with Trump (search mode)
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Author Topic: Georgia suburbanites sticking with Trump  (Read 7014 times)
skbl17
Jr. Member
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Posts: 425
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -6.09

« on: October 21, 2020, 05:34:27 PM »
« edited: October 21, 2020, 05:37:52 PM by skbl17 »

The issue is that the NYT is painting a broad brush of metro Atlanta.

It is true that most Trump voters from 2016 who live in the suburbs will stick with Trump this year. Not all (some will vote for Biden, others will stay home or vote Jorgensen,) but many.

That said, it is wrong to say, as the article implies, that "Georgia suburbanites are sticking with Trump". The implication that creates in the reader's mind is that Georgia suburbs are seeing little to no shifts from 2016 to 2020, which is patently absurd, unless by "suburbanites", the NYT means "suburban whites", which is both wrong - college-educated white voters say "hi" - and racially exclusionary (no electoral analysis of Metro Atlanta is complete without discussing the diversification of the suburbs. Is someone like me, an African-American voter who has lived in the Atlanta suburbs for 16 years, not a "suburbanite" in the eyes of the esteemed NYT?)

Although if you look at the "suburban " part of Atlanta proper which is Buckhead in the north , depending on how you define it, its actually a Clinton-Kemp area !.

Really? Do we have a precinct map of the 2018 election? That would be very surprising, especially since Fulton trended D from 2016 to 2018.

Its on DRA, I don't know the exact definitions of Buckhead but lets use the GOP's definition. This is the part of Atlanta in Georgia 11th,FWIW the GOP didn't shove this in GA 11th instead of GA6th or 5th for partisan purposes, instead Buckhead is where the governor's mansion is and Nathan Deal didn't want to be represented by David Price who endorsed his opponent in 2010 and putting Buckhead in the district makes little partisan difference for GA 6th.


Anyway the GOP definition is probably the richest parts of Buckhead and its +4 Trump and +6 Kemp. If we took a few more precincts close by you could form a narrow Clinton-Kemp area in north Atlanta.



The exact definition of Buckhead, according to the Atlanta Regional Commission, is all of the City of Atlanta bounded by Sandy Springs, Cobb County, DeKalb County, I-85, I-75 between Peachtree Creek and the Brookwood interchange, and Peachtree Creek from the Cobb County border to I-75.

IOW, you need to include all the precincts between I-75, I-85, the DeKalb County line, and the southern extent of the DRA map you posted.
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skbl17
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 425
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -6.09

« Reply #1 on: October 21, 2020, 07:24:43 PM »

The latest polling in for Georgia from Emerson shows Trump with the lead by +1. I think Georgia is a fairly safe bet to go red again for 2020.

Emerson is one pollster. Just in the last week, we've had NYT/Siena (tie,) SurveyUSA (Biden +2,) and Quinnipiac (Biden +7, but with an adjustment to take into account their fairly prounounced lean would still be something like Biden +2 or +3).

Don't look at a single poll; always look at the polling averages, which are (as they currently stand):

- 270toWin: Biden +1.2
- RCP: Biden +1.2
- 538: Biden +1
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