GA (Trafalgar): Trump +7

[skbl17]

Lol. For starters, Trump+7 would indicate an improvement on his 2016 margin in the state (Trump+5). Remember, Kemp did better than him in rural Georgia in 2018, but metro Atlanta swung hard blue, reducing Kemp's victory margin by 80% compared to Trump's. For anything like Trump+7 to be remotely believable would require Trump to run 2016 numbers in the Atlanta suburbs...forgive me if I very, very, very strongly doubt that, because that would mean Biden running 8 points behind Abrams in Cobb, 9 points behind in Gwinnett, and 11 points behind in Henry...you get the deal.

Judging by the demographics of those counties, Trump's approval rating in Georgia (roughly even or 1-2 points underwater,) and Biden's strong performance in polls with suburban voters compared to Clinton, forgive me for taking this with a Stone Mountain-sized grain of salt.

Funnily enough, Trafalgar did a GA poll a couple days before the 2016 election:
Trump+7. Actual result: Trump+5.1.

Not too bad, but then they went off the deep end in 2018, as previously mentioned:
Kemp+12. Actual result: Kemp+1.4.

God I hope Election Twitter succeeds in reaching the donation threshold for a Georgia poll from SurveyUSA. I need quality polling.