This thread and the election was certainly fun.
Right as Joe Biden won in November 2020, I immediately saw an opening for the GOP to win Virginia in 2021.
My co workers and neighbors were in a Nova bubble and could not see a Republican winning statewide. They do not even have to live among high crime rates, inflation was not as noticeable in the Nova region due to already high cost of living, they did not under draconian measures of other Democratic ran localities during covid. So they were literally in a bubble.
What I saw was a state with a very large rural and southern cultured population, with Joe Biden doing actually relatively in the southern part of the state! A large part of the reason of Democrats winning 2013, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2020, was due to a relatively impressive rural vote.
Also online, I saw Loudoun/PwC/Fairfax in 2020 maxed out for Democrats as I did not other potential voters for Democrats to tap in to. Bluntly, they are too wealthy to go much, if at all, above their 2020 performance. But once you go online and see some Republicans call them "Romney-Clinton" counties... uh.... no. Way over simplistic. They seem to forget that about the massive growth in Loudoun and Prince William County. These are not the same as 2004, 2008, 2009, or even 2014. Also the parties have changed a bit since 2004 which flipped some voters.
And of course online.... I saw.. virtually all Dems calling it a solid bloo state... based off of tenuous results and data.
November 2nd, 2021 was a fun night for me. At least the "va is a solid blue state" and "nova only voted dem due to trump" takes have not been widely mentioned since.
But Democrats can not be an effective national party with their messaging and with ceding the white working class. The suburban strategy will not always work. Most suburbs are not Nova and there is a limit to high Democrats can perform in very wealthy areas elsewhere in the country. Note that Henrico County had a higher margin for the Democrats compared to Loudoun. Depending on who moves into and out of Loudoun, I expect Henrico to consistent vote to the left of Loudoun and probably Prince William.
Local campaigns, candidate quality, etc still matter even in this hyper partisan age. But it is why Youngkin, running the best campaign I have ever seen, was only able to defeat the Democrat by 1.9 points, and the GOP was unable to defeat any Nova Democratic incumbents. The anti-intellectualism GOP is a huge turn off in Northern Virginia. Also, I tend to dislike takes like "post dobbs" ratings, but if the current Supreme Court puts limits on the executive branch and over reaches in their rulings, I could see impacting Virginia more than other states. I still have it a bit to the left of the country, and as a pragmatic state. So right wing judicial activism is not going to play well here, especially if the federal government is attacked on its power. Which impacts people directly or indirectly in Nova.
I also have been seeing more a return lately of decisive racial and religious rhetoric in the GOP. Yea.... that is not going to play well in Northern Virginia. It is part of the reason of the huge swing from Obama to Clinton in 2016.
Nova will be a solid Dem voting block for a long time.
People did play the "I am not from here card". Sometimes, when you are completely unbiased and disconnected, you can make better judgements.
But still:
Clinton won it by 5 with Tim Kaine on the ticket and Trump pulled out of the state in 2016. It was winnable for Trump in 2016 statewide, though difficult.
Democrats: Please do not try to max out suburbs and cede the white working class nationally.. it did not work in VA in 2021 (but usually will work in this state), but it would make a place like Michigan impossible.
how could you have seen trump winning virgina in 2016
