2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[NCJeff]

We need to stop obsessing over some arbitrary Dem-Rep difference number for Florida.  All about Turnout.  Only 74.5% of Dems showed up in 2016 vs 81.2% of Repubs....that was the ballgame.

Here is where we are after this morning's update from the Florida SOS.

This chart provides Turnout to date by Party, where they were at the end of all EV in 2016 and what the Final Turnout numbers were.   Dems are way ahead of where they were last time with 10 days of EV left.

We need a tracker like this updated daily if possible!  Wonderful and useful image!

Will do, after each morning when the Florida DOE updates (before 9am)
I will also give updates on how the key big counties are doing.

You are awesome, we really appreciate it.

I second this, this chart is exactly what the doctor ordered!

[NCJeff]

I put together a target-based model of what it would take for Biden to ride democratic/NPA turnout alone to a win in NC.

Key logic in the model:
- There are two immovable camps of voters - the people who voted in 2016, which each has expanded 4% (population growth).
- Hence, because Clinton was behind 173k in the final tally in 2016, Biden must find 180k new voters in 2020 to pass Trump in the vote count.
- 60% of Biden's new voters will be registered democrats, 40% will be NPAs

So the framework of the model is:

Dem
2016 turnout:                1,872,593
w/pop growth:                1,947,497
needed new voters:             108,149
total target:                2,055,646
2020 cumulative vote so far: 1,206,995
progress to target: 58.7%

GOP
2016 turnout:                1,571,730
w/pop growth:                1,634,599
needed new voters:                   0
total target:                1,634,599
2020 cumulative vote so far:   879,222
progress to target: 53.8%

NPA
2016 turnout:                1,305,330
w/pop growth:                1,357,543
needed new voters:              72,100
total target:                1,429,643
2020 cumulative vote so far:   858,117
progress to target: 60.0%

Sources:
2016 turnout - http://dl.ncsbe.gov/ENRS/2016_11_08/voter_stats_20161108.zip
2020 cumulative vote so far - https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/NC.html

[NCJeff]

Update of NC turnout model (designed to model a surge in dem turnout)

Key logic in the model:
- There are two immovable camps of voters - the people who voted in 2016, which each has expanded 4% (population growth).
- Hence, because Clinton was behind 173k in the final tally in 2016, Biden must find 180k new voters in 2020 to pass Trump in the vote count.
- 60% of Biden's new voters will be registered democrats, 40% will be NPAs

In short, if dems and NPA's hit their targets then Trump can only win by surpassing his (likely with an election day surge).  Additionally, to the extent that Biden has converted voters away from Trump, Biden does not need to hit these targets.  This is, in other words, a conservative (i.e., pessimistic, from the democratic perspective) model.

Dem
2016 turnout:                1,872,593
w/pop growth:                1,947,497
needed new voters:             108,149
total target:                2,055,646
2020 cumulative vote so far: 1,255,999
progress to target: 61.1%

GOP
2016 turnout:                1,571,730
w/pop growth:                1,634,599
needed new voters:                   0
total target:                1,634,599
2020 cumulative vote so far:   929,502
progress to target: 56.9%

NPA
2016 turnout:                1,305,330
w/pop growth:                1,357,543
needed new voters:              72,100
total target:                1,429,643
2020 cumulative vote so far:   901,767
progress to target: 63.1%

Previous iteration of model on page 134 of this thread.

Sources:
2016 turnout - http://dl.ncsbe.gov/ENRS/2016_11_08/voter_stats_20161108.zip
2020 cumulative vote so far - https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/NC.html

[NCJeff]

While I would agree the Biden numbers seem awfully optimistic, if the 3.1M votes already cast break 61-37 for Biden, and the 1.85M votes outstanding (*) break 58-41 for Trump, then Biden wins the two-party vote 54-56.  Looking at 538 right now, that's the 90th percentile outcome for Biden.  Unlikely, but not out of line with what we know about the polling right now.

* Assuming total turnout is same as 2016 + 4% population growth.

Edited to clarify that this pertains to NC. I assume Biden will triage FL based on these numbers...

[NCJeff]

While I would agree the Biden numbers seem awfully optimistic, if the 3.1M votes already cast break 61-37 for Biden, and the 1.85M votes outstanding (*) break 58-41 for Trump, then Biden wins the two-party vote 54-56.  Looking at 538 right now, that's the 90th percentile outcome for Biden.  Unlikely, but not out of line with what we know about the polling right now.

* Assuming total turnout is same as 2016 + 4% population growth.

Edited to clarify that this pertains to NC. I assume Biden will triage FL based on these numbers...

Why would Biden triage Florida if he was up like this?

There was a raft of posts a couple days ago about how Biden should pull out of FL. I guess I'll work on my delivery......

[NCJeff]

While I would agree the Biden numbers seem awfully optimistic, if the 3.1M votes already cast break 61-37 for Biden, and the 1.85M votes outstanding (*) break 58-41 for Trump, then Biden wins the two-party vote 54-56.  Looking at 538 right now, that's the 90th percentile outcome for Biden.  Unlikely, but not out of line with what we know about the polling right now.

* Assuming total turnout is same as 2016 + 4% population growth.

Edited to clarify that this pertains to NC. I assume Biden will triage FL based on these numbers...

This does not pertain to NC because you used FL numbers.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-trump-florida-georgia-north-carolina-opinion-poll-10-25-2020/



You're right, I was off by 1 pct in "already voted". And I need to correct the two party margin to Biden 54-46. Whoops.

[NCJeff]

I'm getting more excited about the North Carolina numbers.

Durham 2016 vote = 156k, now = 145k

Orange 2016 vote = 82k, now = 67k

Mecklenburg 2016 vote = 473k.  Now = 419k

Wake 2016 vote = 528k.  now = 453k

Don't forget Buncombe, home to Asheville.

Any idea what's driving Chatham county's turnout so high?  They are at 66% of registered voters, no other county is above 60% right now.

[NCJeff]

The Harris County clerk should get a medal.  They are keeping it exciting with the updates, which is probably encouraging people to get excited about early voting.

It is literally the one thing I will miss about this election.