2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread (user search)
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  2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread  (Read 650897 times)
andrewa
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« on: November 05, 2020, 07:11:10 AM »
Quote from: philly09 on November 05, 2020, 07:05:03 AM

Georgia based on NYT when Trump was 23000 ahead: counties to be completed, same trend,
Biden: Bibb + 2500 on Trump, Chatam +2000, Richmond + 3500, Clayton + 10000, Fulton + 8000, Douglas + 1000, Cobb + 2000, Rockdale + 2000, Muscogee + 1900

Considering some Trump counties not closed yet, could be at the end Biden +5000/+10000 ?
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andrewa
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« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2020, 08:16:50 AM »
Quote from: SPQR on November 05, 2020, 07:55:02 AM
Just ran some numbers on Arizona, based on what's available.
Given what happened with the latest batch of votes reported from Maricopa, which went 59,5% for Trump (a 12,1% swing with respect to the Maricopa previous results), I tried to look what would happen if the same difference with respect to the prior vote occurred everywhere.
Answer: Trump would win by 15K votes.

This is a pretty "strict" hypothesis, nonetheless...it's really tight.



Anyway, why the remaining batches from Maricopa must follow the trend of the 59,5% one, and not the Maricopa major trend 51-47 ?
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