Would Scott Stringer have won the mayoral election if he wasn’t a sex pest?

[SInNYC]

I doubt it. He was way back in most polls and did not have the looks/personality to catch fire with low-attention voters.

The reality of D politics in NYC (and increasingly, the nation) is that its about assembling the appropriate mix of demographics, not the platform or competence. And in NYC, that does not help a person like Stringer - note BDB had an AA wife and his ads prominently featured Dante who was well well-spoken and looked AA.

Stringer's only chance was to get lots of 2nd choice voters, but Adams seems to have done well enough with 1st choice voters for that strategy to have failed.

[SInNYC]

I doubt it. He was way back in most polls and did not have the looks/personality to catch fire with low-attention voters.

So, I don’t think this is entirely true – the harassment allegations happened in late April, and at that point, he was clearly at least third place and occasionally tying for second in the first round. This was all pre-Yang collapse.

Technically true, but it wasnt close really - see pp 25-26 of the NY Mayor thread. One poll on Apr 15 had Yang at 24 and Adams/Stringer tied at 13 with Mcguire at 9 and Wiley at 7.  Another poll had Yang at 26, Adams at 13, Stringer at 11, Wiley at 10, and a couple at 7/6. So basically Yang was 1st and Stringer was towards the top of a far behind pack. I guess I just didnt see him catching fire as a first choice, even though I was strongly for Stringer then. And I suspect there was always going to be a lane for a female since most polls showed strong gender based 2nd choices.