Was Trump really on track to win reelection before Covid?

[Agonized-Statism]

A recession was likely with the inversion of the yield curve and the manufacturing sector in its biggest slump in over a decade because of the trade war with China, not to mention his movement was losing steam after Charolettesville, the Shayrat missile strike, the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, et cetera. He was getting down to just the old and increasingly outnumbered conservative base and all he really had was Democrat factionalism and the economy on his side. COVID was as much a shot in the arm for him (pun intended) as it was his downfall, as it brought out millions of low propensity voters against the lockdowns- many of them men of color- and the QAnon followers. Without it, assuming he doesn't keep going at Iran and starts a devastating war, I think a recession, Operation Gideon, and probably some smaller police brutality protests would have done him in over the summer.