2020 without George Floyd

[Agonized-Statism]

Biden's win in states like Georgia and Arizona was because of suburban backlash against Trump for his erratic behavior and handling of the pandemic, not because of the high minority turnout that won Obama states like North Carolina. It would be interesting to see how many minorities came out of the racial unrest this summer more jaded about the American political system as a whole than they were excited to vote for the Democrats (or Republicans for that matter), but I doubt we'll ever get honest polling on that. If that was the case, then no George Floyd would mean a bigger Democratic victory, with gains in the Southeast in particular. Additionally, some white suburbanites who were turned off by the protests this summer might have voted Biden.

Also important to note is that the Floyd killing wasn't the only incident highlighting systemic racism this year. There was also Ahmaud Arbery, Breonna Taylor, Christian Cooper, and Jacob Blake, both before and after May 25. Aside from being the most extensively filmed and unusually cruel of the incidents this year, Floyd's murder was amplified over the others because it was the first to happen after the lockdown started and its economic effects were taking a serious toll, particularly on the poor and minorities. Combine that with the country being more politically conscious heading into election season and this civil unrest was a powder keg ready to blow.