Assume Trump wins AZ, GA, WI, PA in 2020. Assume Perdue and Peters win and all other races are the same outcome.
Democrats have a 7 seat gain in the 2022 Senate.
The Democratic nominee would be leading by double digits and actually go on to win by that much. FL, TX, IA, OH, AK all flip.
Warren, Kloubuchar would probably be in, as well as Whitmer and Newsom.
I assume you mean Peters loses to James?
I also don't see Trump being unpopular enough for a 7 seat senate lose in 2022. They probably lose it. (Ande definitely lose the House assuming they took it in 2020) But I don't think there are enough swing seats up.
They lose PA (duh), WI.
After that it is hard. NC I can see in a bad midterm. AK would not have Peralta (she won her house race in August 2022- which may have been for control in this TL) OH maybe but I don't see it given how far the state has gone. There where no other GOP seats won in 2022 by less than 11 points.
I have no idea where you would get 7, 5 seems like a herculean task given the map.
