If Romney loses renomination could he pull a Lieberman 2006 and try running for re-election as a third party candidate, or would Utah law prevent that?
Utah has a sore loser law. It’s why Kael Weston couldn’t run as an independent this year.
Alternatively, Romney doesn't even bother running in a GOP primary and just runs Indy from the start. Not likely, though that would be a way to get around that.
I don’t think dems would just drop their own candidate and endorse Romney the same way they did for McMullin.
If this was some CT-2006 redux, the Dem candidate would still get around 10% of the vote, with Romney comes out on top with coalition of Dems + NeverTrump GOPers, winning something like 49-40-10%.
Given that it is Utah and a recent 2024 GOP presidential primary poll has Trump in 3rd, I would expect Romney to do significantly better and the MAGA guy, significantly worse.
Something like 55-33-10 in a hypothetical 3-way race