OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

I think too many posters in this thread are underestimating the Democrats' chances at flipping this seat. I think the Democratic Party in Ohio has a strong floor of at least 46% to work with -- all of their candidates in 2018 for state executive offices got at least that much. In the 16 races for the U.S. House, the Democrats collectively got a little over 47%. And I think the GOP is going to have poor voter turnout in 2022, because of Trump emphasizing his belief in massive voter fraud, causing a sizable portion of the GOP base to stay home out of distrust in the integrity of the election system. I expect there to be lower voter turnout in 2022 than there was in 2018 because of Trump poisoning his party's trust in the electoral process.

Plus, we don't know yet who will be the two nominees, or where will Biden's popularity be at by October 2022.

The floor for the Democrats is way lower than that. Probably the 37% Strickland got in 2016.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Seems obvious that the runner-up here is going to take Brown's seat in 2024, no?

No

Absolutely not. The GOP would be better served nominating at least 10 other people before considering any of these also rans in 2024. If you can't get out of this clown show I don't want you facing Brown.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

I don’t know whether Trump is just stupid, has useless advisers, or just naturally gravitates to other frauds. Vance is the most likely to lose a GE & the most likely to be disloyal should they both be in office together. Mandel, Timken actually believe in Trumpist lunacy, and Gibbons is a Rand Paul type who will go along with the isolationist stuff. Vance quite plainly believes in nothing, he’s like Lindsey Graham. There is literally no upside to this for Trump.

I really believe Mandel actually had the greatest chance of losing an all but impossible to lose race.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Dolan is probably the choice of strong DeWine backers.